Value Betting Guide for Beginners

Want to beat the bookmakers using math, not luck? You're in the right place. Value betting is one of the most powerful and proven strategies in sports betting. Instead of guessing outcomes, you place bets where the odds are in your favor—and profit over time.

Value betting is one of the most powerful and proven strategies in sports betting.

Instead of guessing outcomes, you place bets where the odds are in your favor—and profit over time.

Whether you're a complete beginner or already know the basics, this step-by-step guide will take you from theory to real results.

In this Ultimate Guide to Value Betting, you'll learn:

• What value betting is—and how it works with real examples
• The truth about risk, variance, and how to manage your bankroll
• What bookmakers don't want you to know—and how to stay under the radar
• Tips, tricks, psychology and mindset for long-term success
• Key terminology and how to talk like a pro
• And much more…

Let's dive in.

Introduction to Value Betting

Value betting isn't gambling—it's strategy.

In this chapter, you'll learn the basics of how value betting works, why it's profitable, and what separates it from traditional sports betting.

If you're new to the concept, don't worry. We'll walk you through everything, step by step—including real examples and answers to the most common beginner questions.

Let's start with the most important question of all…

What is Value Betting?

Value betting is one of the most reliable strategies to profit from sports betting over time.

It's based on mathematics, statistics, and market inefficiencies—not luck.

The core principle is simple:

You only place bets when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the outcome. This creates what's known as a positive expected value (EV)—a mathematical edge in your favor.

By consistently betting on these undervalued odds, you can gain a long-term advantage over the bookmakers.

While short-term losses will happen (no strategy wins every bet), the math is on your side—and that's what counts.

Let's break it down:

• Bookmakers assign odds to reflect the chance of an outcome.
• Sometimes, they get it wrong—or adjust odds for market reasons (not accuracy).
• When their odds are higher than the actual probability, a value opportunity is created.

Successful value betting is all about discipline, patience, and proper bankroll management.

You won't win every bet, but if you consistently back outcomes with a positive EV, you're expected to profit in the long run.

For more information on bankroll management, see our bankroll management guide.

How Value Betting Works

At its core, value betting works by identifying inefficiencies in the odds offered by bookmakers—situations where the odds don't accurately reflect the true likelihood of an event.

You estimate the true probability of an outcome (manually or using tools like FairOdds Terminal), compare it to the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds, and if your estimate is higher—it's a value bet.

Let's take an example. Imagine a football match where:

• Bookmaker odds for Team A to win: 2.50
• Your estimated probability: 45%
• Implied probability of the bookmaker's odds: 40% (1 ÷ 2.50)

Since your estimated probability is higher than the bookmaker's, this is a value bet.

You're betting on something that is more likely to happen than the odds suggest.

Does it seem complicated? Well, you don't need to calculate this manually—FairOdds Terminal does it for you, scanning thousands of odds across dozens of bookmakers in real-time.

For more information on how to find value bets, see our how to find value bets guide.

Value Betting with the Example of a Coin Toss

To illustrate how value betting works, let's use a simple coin toss.

A fair coin has two outcomes: heads or tails. Each has a 50% chance, which equals decimal odds of 2.00 (since 1 ÷ 0.5 = 2.00).

Now imagine this scenario:

• Bookmaker A offers odds of 2.10 on Heads
• Bookmaker B offers odds of 2.00 on Tails

Since both outcomes have an equal chance, betting on 2.10 is the smarter choice—it's offering more than what it's truly worth.

This is a value bet. The odds are higher than the true probability suggests, which gives you a statistical advantage.

The larger the difference, the greater your edge.

For more information on calculating expected value, see our expected value calculator.

What Do I Need to Start?

To get started with value betting, you need:

• An internet connection and a computer or mobile device
• A FairOdds Terminal subscription
• Some capital to invest (you can start with as little as a few hundred euros)
• Sign up with a few recommended bookmakers for value betting (you can start with just one, but more bookmakers mean more value bets)

Check out the full manual to learn the interface and to get more in-depth explanations.

For more information on getting started, see our complete value betting guide.

How Much Can I Make?

This depends on a few key factors: your starting bankroll, how many bets you place, your average edge, and how much time you invest.

But value betting has proven to be very profitable—especially over time.

Here's what we know from real results:

• Value betting works across thousands of bets
• Typical expected values range from 4-7% per bet
• Monthly ROI can exceed 20-30% with proper bankroll management
• Average yield (profit per bet) typically ranges from 3-5%

Most users use value betting as a side hustle, while some others turn it into a full-time income stream.

Keep in mind: results vary based on bankroll, time spent, variance, and how many value bets you place.

The key to value betting is volume. The more bets you place, the closer your returns will be to your expected value of 4-7% per bet.

However, for an individual bet, it will either win or lose. So the key to value betting is volume—the more bets you place, the more you will profit in the long run.

For more information on variance and managing expectations, see our variance in sports betting guide.

How to Detect Value Bets

You detect value bets by comparing the bookmaker's odds to the true probability of an outcome.

That sounds complex—but with FairOdds Terminal, it's fully automated.

By using the sharpest bookmaker odds (the most accurate indicators of true probability) as a reference, and taking betting bias and market efficiency into account, our system scans dozens of bookmakers to find odds that are out of sync.

Whenever a bookmaker offers higher odds than the market consensus—a value bet is created.

All you need to do is:

1. Log in to the software
2. Pick a value bet from the feed
3. Place it at the listed bookmaker
4. Log it and enjoy the winnings

It's plug-and-play value betting, made to be as easy and accessible as possible.

For more information on using FairOdds Terminal, see our value betting manual.

How Much Time Does It Take?

Well, that's up to you.

Value betting is highly flexible—you can treat it as a part-time side hustle or a serious full-time income stream.

• Casual users spend around 10–15 minutes/day
• Advanced users can spend 1–2+ hours/day
• Some even use value betting as their main source of income

The more time and effort you put in (and the more bookmakers you use), the more profitable opportunities you'll find.

Value betting is very simple to execute. By only placing a single bet on the soft bookmaker, you don't need to worry about trying to place multiple bets within a short window before the odds change.

This simplicity makes it good for beginners compared to other betting strategies.

Is Value Betting Legal?

Yes—value betting is legal in most countries.

You're simply placing bets on publicly available odds, using a smarter strategy.

However, there are two things to keep in mind:

• Always check your local laws and regulations. In rare cases, certain aspects may be restricted or regulated.
• Value betting is generally allowed, but some bookmakers don't like profitable bettors. They may limit or restrict your account once you start winning consistently.

This is inevitable and there's nothing you can really do about it. The good thing is that FairOdds Terminal supports 200+ bookmakers and they are continuously adding more.

So even if you do get limited with a bookmaker, you can simply open an account with another bookmaker and keep betting with them, and repeat the process.

This means that even if you do get limited by a bookmaker, it's not the end of the road, and you can keep going with value betting.

For more information on avoiding limitations, see our how to avoid getting restricted guide.

Pros and Cons of Value Betting

Let's summarize the main advantages and disadvantages of value betting:

Pros:

• High profits in the long run: You can expect to make more money with value betting than with arbitrage betting. Typical expected values range from 4-7% per bet.
• Doesn't require bonuses: Unlike matched betting, value betting doesn't require bookmaker bonuses or promotions.
• Very simple: There is no laying of bets or betting on opposing outcomes in value betting, so it is much simpler to do.
• Good for beginners: The simplicity and higher profits make value betting an excellent way to make money from sports betting.

Cons:

• High variance in profits: As we aren't backing all possible outcomes, your profit can fluctuate greatly from month to month. You will have good months with plenty of profit and bad months with low profit or even losses.
• Requires discipline: When you have a series of many losses in a row, it's easy to get frustrated and want to give up on value betting or start placing bets that don't have any value. But you must have discipline and stick to your original staking plan and keep placing value bets.
• Account limitations: As with arbitrage betting, if you continue to win at a soft bookmaker, you will eventually see your stakes limited down to the point where it is no longer worthwhile to continue betting. This is inevitable, but you can simply open accounts with other bookmakers.

All in all, value betting is an excellent way to make money from sports betting. It is simple and easy to execute, has higher profits than other methods, and doesn't require any prior knowledge of sports.

For more information on managing variance, see our 5 tactics to reduce variance.

Ready to start value betting? Use FairOdds Terminal to find value bets across 200+ bookmakers and start profiting from sports betting using math, not luck.

Value Betting for Beginners FAQ