How to Find Value Bets: Complete Guide

Discover three proven methods to find value bets and learn how expected value betting can help you maximize profits from sports betting.

Much like arbitrage betting, value betting is a widely used betting approach employed by those who have used up their matched betting chances. Continue reading to discover more about value betting, plus access helpful resources to help you begin earning money right away!

What is Value Betting?

In contrast to matched and arbitrage betting, value betting doesn't involve betting on every outcome. You locate chances where a bookmaker has incorrectly priced their odds, and you place a wager with them. With arbitrage betting, you typically cover your position by placing an opposing bet with another bookmaker.

Since this second bookmaker has precise odds (but with a profit margin included), you're actually receiving poor value here. With value betting, you only place a bet on the outcome with the incorrectly priced (good value) odds, understanding that you're getting positive expected value.

Over time, with sufficient bets placed, you'll overcome the variance in your results and achieve higher profits than with arbitrage betting.

What is Expected Value?

Expected value sports betting means spotting situations where a bookmaker has set odds that don't match the true probability of an event. Specifically, they've set odds that suggest a probability lower than the actual probability.

What does this actually mean? Let's recall our formula for working out the implied probability from the odds:

Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds

So the probability of an outcome equals the inverse of the odds. Higher odds indicate lower probability of an outcome happening. This makes sense, right? If a team is running at odds of 20.0, it makes sense that the bookmaker believes they have almost no chance of winning.

With this in mind, if a bookmaker has set odds of 1.80 for Team A to win a match against Team B, what probability are they suggesting by setting these odds?

Implied Probability = 1 / 1.80 = 55.6%

Note: The bookmaker actually believes that Team A have a lower probability of winning than this (say 50% chance), but they set the implied probability higher (and odds lower) than this to include a profit margin of a few percent.

But what if we somehow knew that the true probability of Team A winning was actually 60%? This would mean we could bet on Team A with this bookmaker and have an advantage over them! Even with their built-in profit margin, we know the bookmaker is giving us a better price than they should.

But how much of an advantage do we have? Well, it returns to the concept of expected value.

Understanding Expected Value

Expected value is a mathematical idea that explains what the expected result is for an event with multiple possible outcomes. Essentially, you multiply the probability of each potential outcome by the payout linked to that outcome, then add this up for each of the outcomes.

For an event with 2 possible outcomes, it looks like this:

EV = (Probability A × Payout A) + (Probability B × Payout B)

Let's look at the classic example of flipping a coin. We're offered to bet $1 on the result of a coin flip. If we get it right, we win $2 (our $1 stake plus $1 winnings). If we get it wrong, we lose our $1 stake. Assuming a fair coin, there's a 50% chance of getting it right each time.

So, the expected value of this bet is:

EV = (0.5 × $1) + (0.5 × -$1) = $0

So we have a 50% chance of profiting $1 and a 50% chance of losing $1. If we were to do this bet many times, our expected value would be $0. We don't expect to win or lose in the long run, but to break even.

If we return to our original example, a bookmaker has given us odds of 1.80 for Team A to win a match. This suggests a probability of 55.6%, but we know the true probability of them winning is actually 60%.

So what's our expected value from staking $100 on this bet:

EV = (0.60 × $80) + (0.40 × -$100) = $8

We have a 60% chance of profiting $80 and a 40% chance of losing our $100 stake, which gives us an expected value of $8 (or 8%)! In the long run, we'd expect to profit $8 multiplied by the number of times we placed this bet!

However, you can see our variance is large (as low as -$100 or as high as +$80 multiplied by the number of bets we place). This is one of the major drawbacks of value betting. While the expected profits are high, the variance is enormous and you need to use a careful staking plan to make sure you don't lose your bankroll.

How Do We Know Whether a Bet has Value?

After reading everything above, the question you're probably asking yourself is 'how do we know that the true probability of Team A winning was 60%?' or in other words 'how do we know when a bet has value?'

Great question. If you've read about sharp and soft bookmakers, you'll know that sharp bookmakers differ from soft bookmakers by having very low profit margins (less than 5%) and adjusting their odds very quickly when news breaks.

The sharp bookmaker business model depends on high turnover to make money. The high turnover compensates for the tight profit margins they operate. Sharp bookmakers invest heavily in having excellently priced odds that very accurately represent the true probability of an outcome occurring. This is what allows them to accept such high bets.

As a value bettor, we can benefit from the sharp bookmakers' hard work in setting excellent odds. Since we know the sharp bookmakers are so accurate, we use their odds to determine the 'true' probability of an outcome.

If a soft bookmaker's odds differ from these odds (which they often do), then you have a potential value bet! Every arbitrage bet contains a value bet in it. For a 2 leg arbitrage bet, we have the sharp leg and the soft (value) leg.

We might expect to lose 4% on the sharp leg (this is the sharp's profit margin), and gain 6% on the soft leg. So we'd get a guaranteed profit of 2%. Value betting essentially involves not betting on the sharp leg, and taking the 6% profit rather than 2% but with much, much higher variance.

To work out the expected value, just use the formula we discussed earlier. Calculate the true probability using the sharp odds, then calculate the expected value of the soft bet.

If this formula returns a value of 0.08, for example, it means there's value of 8% in this bet.

How to Find Value Bets: 3 Proven Methods

There are three main methods to find value bets, and each can be combined with another to maximize your chance of finding value betting opportunities that no one else can.

The most challenging way of finding value betting opportunities is by searching for them manually. Your budget-friendly method will be using a free value bet finder. But the most profitable is opting in for a paid positive EV bet finder (EV – expected value. The same as Value betting but with another name).

In summary, there are essentially 3 methods:

• Manually searching for value bets by comparing odds between bookmakers (use an expected value calculator to help)
• Using free value betting tools that display betting opportunities with some limitations
• Using paid premium value betting platforms for searching value bet opportunities

All these ways of finding value bets have their benefits and disadvantages as well. I strongly recommend using some form of software to help you find your value bets, as this will accelerate the process significantly. Those of you who've done arbitrage betting will know how long you can spend searching through bookmaker websites before you find a single suitable bet.

Tracking all of your value bets is another crucial aspect of value betting and the software can do this for you almost effortlessly. Using a platform like FairOdds Terminal can help you identify value opportunities across hundreds of bookmakers automatically. For more information on value betting strategies, check out our complete value betting guide.

Method 1: The Manual Method

The industry of smart betting has evolved a lot in the past few years. Value bettors and smart bettors, in general, develop new ways of beating the bookies. Unfortunately, if you really want to succeed, this is not the income source that you can start later.

Every day, bookies are also getting smarter and have better-developed algorithms to spot value bettors as well. Back in 2010-2015, it was fairly easy to find value bets manually. The bookmakers made a lot of mistakes, and you could place bets easily before the odds dropped. In most cases, bookies flagged your account only for winning too much, not for placing bets on overpriced odds.

As time passed, value betting finders got more popular, and they scanned a lot of bookmakers. These services got greater attention from bettors, so more and more of us started actively using them.

Even though scanner services are making it hard to find wrong odds manually, there are still excellent opportunities to spot positive EV bets that no tool can find. The more people who use these services, the more people are betting on the same outcome of a match. This means that a value betting opportunity is getting too much attention, and the odds on those bets are dropping faster.

For a beginner value bettor, this means that the chance of finding a value opportunity is getting harder. Below are my top tips you can use to get ahead of other bettors and make some profits.

These odds comparison sites can not scan every bookmaker and every market on sports events. Knowing this, you can have better chances of finding value bet opportunities manually.

Steps on How to Find Value Bets Manually:

1. Find some bookmakers that are available in your country (and they are also trustworthy, based on other bettors' opinions).
2. Have a look at value scanner services, whether they are scanning that bookmaker or not (it is hard to find one that is not scanned, but hope for the best).
3. Choose a sport that you are familiar with. At the start, you should stick to football and tennis. They are fairly predictable, and you can find many value betting opportunities on these.
4. Open the same sports event at your local bookie and at a sharp bookmaker. Sharp bookmakers are betting sites that are capable of defining the true probability of an outcome way more accurately than other regular betting sites. Their betting odds have a smaller house edge due to higher accuracy, which makes them excellent to compare other slower bookie lines to their odds.
5. The easiest way to look for a value bet is to compare the same market/outcome between your local bookie and the sharp bookmaker.
6. In the beginning, try finding positive EV bets on markets with only two outcomes: over/under goals, over/under corners, and over/under cards.
7. If the odds at your local bookie are significantly higher than at the sharp bookmaker (ex., 1.80 instead of 1.65 or 2.60 instead of 2.40) it might be a value bet.
8. To make sure you are not mistaken, I would advise using a free arbitrage calculator or expected value calculator. If you insert the overpriced odds on one side and the other outcome odds from the sharp bookmaker, the calculator will display if there is value.
9. In case the expected value is above 0%, the odds at your local bookie are overpriced, and you just found a positive EV bet manually.
10. If you are familiar with handicap markets, you will need to check those as well. I found many value bets on these that were not displayed by the main tools.
11. For manual search, I would suggest paying more attention to tennis markets between your bookmaker and a sharp bookie.

Finding value bets manually before the start of the event is very hard. The time you invest in finding these bets is not worth it if you take into consideration that a tool could help you find at least 20 times more value betting opportunities.

But finding wrong odds and value opportunities in a live event is still a good possibility these days. If you are a beginner in value betting, it is good to know that bookmakers are making the most of their mistakes on live events. Even though you have more value bet possibilities, the odds are changing really fast.

Being successful in manual searching at live events needs a lot of experience, but it is also one of the least suspicious ways you can make money.

Tips for Finding Value Betting Opportunities Manually on Live Events:

• Markets with fast-changing odds are one of the best opportunities for finding positive EV bets.
• Markets that are excellent for finding value bets on football: over/under goals, corner, handicap markets, next corner market, over/under red or yellow cards.
• Markets for value betting on tennis: over/under games in the set and the match too, handicap markets, set winners. It is better to wait for the breaks to place your bets. This way you reduce the chance of running into dropping odds or risking the chance of betting on outcomes that did not have a true value on them.
• Good markets on Basketball could be over/under points, handicaps, and winners in quarters, or halves.

Finding value bets on live events is mostly for more advanced bettors, so if you just started your betting journey, you can have more success and less risk with the next method of finding value bets.

Method 2: Use a Free Software

For beginner value bettors, this method is the most favorable for finding positive EV bets and growing your bank.

These services scan bookmakers with complex algorithms and compare their odds of finding value opportunities. Before opting into a free value betting software, make sure to check how they find betting opportunities. Many services offer predictions that don't even beat the closing line value in the long run.

Advantages of Using Free Value Scanners:

• If you are a beginner value bettor, you can gain experience without paying for the service.
• You can grow your bank faster than finding value bets manually (but only if you don't have experience).
• You can check which bookmaker is good for your needs.
• You can complete your bonus requirement rollovers faster.

Disadvantages of Using Free Value Scanners:

• The maximum % of return on value bets at free scanners is only 2%.
• Most of them are showing the value bets with a delay of approximately 1 minute. So those who have paid for the value scanner service have a 1-minute advantage for placing those bets before the odds start dropping.
• A lot of people are using these free services, so the chance of being flagged as a smart bettor is pretty high.
• You miss a lot of good opportunities because of delays and the 2% limit on profit.

You might ask: how to find value bets with free software that is still available? It's a fair question. Everybody can have access to the same markets, bookies, and betting opportunities as you when using a free tool.

First things first, you need to use software that does not have a significant delay in displaying the odds. Based on my experience, free trial periods of premium value betting platforms are your best shots for pre-match value betting. Many of them offer their services with a slight limitation on the profit % (in the free trial), which allows you to spot value bets that are still live.

I don't get why someone with a starting capital of at least a few hundred euros would not take advantage of a free opportunity like this. They can easily increase your monthly profits by even 15 times.

Method 3: Use a Paid/Premium +EV Bet Finder

Using the paid version of these services most of the time has a significant impact on the quality and the number of your value bets. This way, you will not face delays, and there will be no maximum profit % limitation at value bets.

Advantages of Using Paid Value Scanners:

• No delay in showing new positive EV betting opportunities.
• No profit % limitations.
• You can see value opportunities that are not available in the free version due to these limitations.
• Way bigger returns in the long run.

Disadvantages of Using Paid Value Scanners:

• Some of the subscriptions can be expensive for a beginner's experience and bankroll.
• There is a chance that you get limited at bookmakers before the subscription ends at the scanner service – if you do not have new accounts, that could mean dead money.
• You might feel pushed to use the software even if you do not have the mood or time for work (because you paid for it).

To avoid any misunderstanding, I have to note that price differences at these do not mean a very big quality difference as well.

Steps for Spotting Value Betting Opportunities:

1. Make a list of your bookies: To identify the right value betting opportunities, you need to have a list of your local bookies. I would advise using only the ones with a good reputation. This betting technique is not welcomed, so the last thing you want to experience is facing a bookie who has a background of banning accounts for no reason.
2. Open the events at sharp bookmakers: To practice value betting with success, you need at least one sharp bookmaker that has already proven to be able to display accurate odds.
3. Set up the filters: After opening accounts at the above-mentioned bookmakers and having some funds on your accounts, you need to set up your filters with the value betting software. To identify the right value betting opportunities you need to open the settings and choose only the bookmakers that you have funds plus the sharp bookmaker. You need to fix the sharp bookmaker so the tool will compare each odds to theirs, not between soft bookmakers. These settings are different from one software to another.
4. Selecting the required sports, markets, and odds ranges: This can come when you already have an idea about how to find value betting opportunities at your local bookmakers.
5. Follow the right value bets: The right way to find and identify the value bets that are good is by looking for value bets that are available for several seconds or even minutes. Many of these opportunities disappear in one second to another. These can happen because of a short delay at one bookmaker, not because of a real value betting opportunity.
6. Calculate the stakes: Now you know how to get value bets displayed on your screen. The next step is calculating the right stake for your bets. Each relevant value betting finder has a dedicated calculator for each betting opportunity. You will notice them as a calculator icon on each value betting opportunity pop-up window. Here you can fix one leg of your bets and include the stake you need at your slow bookmaker. The tool will display the right stakes for the other outcome.
7. Place the bets: You succeeded in learning how to find value odds and how to calculate the right stakes. Here comes the hardest part of your activity. Getting the best value opportunities is not enough. You need to be fast at each step to accomplish it successfully. Opening the right event and market in time and inserting the right odds is the crucial part of profitable value betting. The odds might change from one second to another, and if you are not fast enough, sometimes you need to cover your bets with a loss.

For this reason, premium value betting platforms will actually help you make more money in the long run, despite the fact that they come with a monthly subscription fee. FairOdds Terminal offers comprehensive value betting tools with automatic bet tracking, detailed analytics, and real-time value bet identification across hundreds of bookmakers.

How Much Can You Profit From Value Betting?

This is a great question and it really comes down to a few factors:

• How much your initial stake is
• How aggressive you're willing to be with your staking plan
• The number of value bets you place
• How quickly you get limited by the soft bookmakers

Most value bets have an expected value of around 6-8%, so your monthly profit will be a function of these factors. As I've already mentioned many times, please don't expect a smooth profit curve. You'll have great months with incredible profits and months with either no profit or losses.

Pros and Cons of Value Betting

So, as a way of summarizing everything, what are the pros and cons of value betting?

Pros

Higher profits than arbitrage betting in long run – As mentioned before, arbitrage betting involves both a value bet and a regular bet. We might expect to lose 4% on the sharp leg (this is the sharp's profit margin), and gain 6% on the soft leg. So we'd get a guaranteed profit of 2%. Value betting essentially involves not betting on the sharp leg, and taking the 6% profit rather than 2%. With value betting, you can expect to make 2-3x the money you'd make with arbitrage betting (in the long run).

Doesn't require bonuses like matched betting – Even after you've run out of promotions or have been promo banned by a bookmaker you can continue doing value betting.

Only place one bet, no laying required, simpler – Arbitrage and matched betting require you to place two bets in quick succession. Arbitrage betting in particular requires you to be very quick, as if the odds move against you, you may be exposed to potential losses. With value betting, you simply place a single bet and you're finished. It's much simpler to execute in this regard.

Cons

Higher variance in profits – With value betting, you have fantastic months where all of your bets go in your favor, and terrible months where you may lose a large fraction of your bankroll. There are no smooth profits like you get with arbitrage or matched betting.

Requires Discipline – A month with many losing bets can lead to frustration and anger, and it can lead some people to start placing bets that no longer represent value, which is dangerous. You must have good discipline, control over your emotions, and the ability to stick to your staking plan.

Can be difficult to know when to withdraw profits – Due to the variance associated with value betting, it can be difficult to know when to withdraw your profits. You don't want to pull out too much money when you have a bad period, as this can make it difficult to get back to where you were.

Account Restrictions – As with arbitrage and matched betting you'll get restricted by soft bookmakers eventually, with your stakes reduced down to only a few dollars.

Ready to find value bets? Use FairOdds Terminal to identify positive expected value opportunities across hundreds of bookmakers.

How to Find Value Bets FAQ