No Vig Price (NVP) Guide: Beat the Fair Odds for +EV Betting

Master the single most important metric in value betting—the threshold between profit and loss.

No Vig Price is the foundation of successful value betting. Understanding it is not optional—it's the difference between making money and losing money in sports betting.

This guide will teach you exactly what NVP is, why you must beat it, and how to use it in practice with real examples.

What is the NVP?

NVP stands for No Vig Price. This is the price that you need to beat in order for your bet to have a positive expected value.

The NVP that you see in dropping odds opportunities is Pinnacle's price after the odds have dropped with the vig subtracted.

It is our best estimate of fair odds, which means we believe the implied probability of these odds very closely reflects the true probability of a given event occurring.

How NVP is Calculated

The calculation involves several steps:

• Start with market odds: Take Pinnacle's current odds after a drop
• Convert to probabilities: Transform odds into implied probabilities
• Remove the vig: Use a devigging method to eliminate the bookmaker's margin
• Convert back to odds: The result is your No Vig Price

For example, if Pinnacle has a two-way market with odds of 1.95 and 1.95, the total implied probability is 102.6% (51.3% + 51.3%). After devigging, each side becomes 50% (true fair probability), which converts to 2.00 odds—this is your NVP.

Why Beating NVP is So Important

If you don't consistently beat the NVP, then your bets are going to have negative expected value.

This is because your payouts are going to be too small relative to the probabilities of the events that you are betting on occurring. Over time you will lose money if you don't beat the NVP, so you should never take odds if they aren't better than it!

The math is unforgiving:

• Betting above NVP → Positive EV → Long-term profit
• Betting at NVP → Zero EV → Break even (no profit, no loss)
• Betting below NVP → Negative EV → Long-term loss

Think of NVP as the "true price" of a bet. If you pay more than the true price (worse odds), you're getting a bad deal. If you pay less than the true price (better odds), you're getting value.

To Bet or Not to Bet? Real Examples

Let's work through three real examples to see when you should and shouldn't place a bet based on NVP.

The image above shows a real example from Bet365 where a bettor placed €14 at 2.5 odds, resulting in an 8.65% profit margin (€1.25 in expected value). This is exactly the kind of +EV opportunity you find by beating the NVP.

How Much Better Than NVP is Good?

Any amount better than NVP creates positive expected value, but let's quantify what different edges mean:

• 0.5-1% edge: Barely positive EV. Worth taking if volume is high, but margins are thin.
• 1-2% edge: Good value. This is typical for many dropping odds opportunities.
• 2-3% edge: Very good value. These are solid opportunities worth prioritizing.
• 3-5% edge: Excellent value. Jump on these quickly as they won't last long.
• 5%+ edge: Exceptional value. Rare opportunities that should be bet immediately and at maximum stake.

Professional bettors are profitable with just 1-3% edges over thousands of bets. Even small edges compound significantly over time.

Different Devigging Methods

There are four different methods for subtracting the vig from Pinnacle's odds: Power, Additive, Multiplicative, and Shin.

While users have the option to choose which devigging method to use, we recommend beginners stick with the default Power method as it is widely accepted as the best due to it accounting for longshot bias while ensuring the devigged probabilities remain within the valid 0-1 range, avoiding infeasibilities.

The Four Devigging Methods Explained

1. Power Method (Recommended)

• Accounts for longshot bias (underdogs are typically overpriced)
• Ensures probabilities stay between 0% and 100%
• Most mathematically sound for realistic market conditions
• Works well across all bet types and odds ranges

2. Additive Method

• Subtracts vig equally from all outcomes
• Simple and intuitive calculation
• Can produce unrealistic probabilities in extreme cases
• Best for markets with similar odds on all sides

3. Multiplicative Method

• Scales all probabilities proportionally
• Maintains relative probability relationships
• Doesn't account for longshot bias
• Works well for markets without extreme favorites or underdogs

4. Shin Method

• Accounts for insider trading and information asymmetry
• More complex mathematical model
• Useful in markets suspected of informed betting
• Overkill for most casual bettors

How to Use NVP in Practice

Here's your step-by-step workflow for using NVP effectively:

Step 1: Monitor Dropping Odds

Watch the FairOdds Terminal for Pinnacle dropping odds opportunities. When you see a significant drop, the terminal calculates the NVP for you automatically.

Step 2: Check the NVP

Look at the displayed NVP. This is your threshold. Memorize it or write it down.

Step 3: Shop Other Sportsbooks

Quickly check 5-10 recreational sportsbooks (Bet365, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, etc.) for the same market.

Step 4: Compare Odds to NVP

For each sportsbook, ask: "Are these odds better than the NVP?"

• If YES → Calculate your edge and place the bet
• If NO → Skip it and move to the next opportunity

Step 5: Act Fast

Once you find odds better than NVP, place your bet immediately. Odds adjust quickly, typically within 1-5 minutes.

Common NVP Mistakes to Avoid

Even experienced bettors make these errors when working with No Vig Price:

• Betting at or below NVP: "Close enough" doesn't cut it. Below NVP = guaranteed long-term losses.
• Ignoring NVP entirely: Betting just because odds dropped, without checking if you beat the fair price.
• Using wrong devigging method: Switching methods inconsistently or using inappropriate methods for your markets.
• Comparing different markets: NVP is market-specific. Don't compare spread NVP to moneyline odds.
• Forgetting about line shopping: Accepting the first odds you see without checking if other books offer better prices above NVP.
• Miscalculating edge: Not understanding how much better your odds are than NVP in percentage terms.

NVP and Closing Line Value

NVP is closely related to another important concept: Closing Line Value (CLV).

When you bet above NVP based on Pinnacle's dropped odds, you're essentially betting before the market adjusts to the new information. If you consistently beat NVP, you're also likely beating the closing line at other sportsbooks.

The relationship:

• Betting above NVP = Getting value based on current sharp odds
• Positive CLV = Getting value based on final market consensus
• Both indicate you're finding +EV bets

Track both metrics over time to verify your strategy is working.

Advanced NVP Strategies

Once you've mastered basic NVP usage, consider these advanced techniques:

1. NVP Thresholds by Sport

Some sports have tighter markets than others. Set minimum edge requirements:

• NFL/NBA: 1%+ edge minimum (very efficient markets)
• Soccer (major leagues): 1.5%+ edge minimum
• Tennis: 2%+ edge minimum (more variance)
• Minor leagues: 2.5%+ edge minimum (less reliable odds)

2. Multi-Way Market NVP

For three-way markets (win/draw/win in soccer), NVP becomes more complex. The Power method is especially important here as it handles multiple outcomes better than simpler methods.

3. Live Betting NVP

NVP changes constantly in live betting as game state evolves. You need to recalculate NVP frequently or use tools that do it automatically. The edge disappears even faster in-game—often within 30-60 seconds.

4. Combining with Arbitrage

Sometimes odds movements create both +EV opportunities (above NVP) and arbitrage opportunities (guaranteed profit). Always check for arbs when you spot good NVP situations.

Ready to start beating the NVP? FairOdds Terminal automatically calculates No Vig Price for every dropping odds opportunity so you can identify value bets instantly.

No Vig Price (NVP) FAQ