Closing Line Value (CLV): How to Track & Beat the Closing Line
Learn why beating the closing line is the ultimate measure of betting skill and long-term profitability.
Closing Line Value is the single most important metric for measuring betting success. Not your win/loss record. Not your ROI this month. Your CLV percentage.
If you consistently beat the closing line, you will make money long-term. If you don't, you won't. It's that simple.
What is Closing Line Value?
In simple terms: closing line value (also called CLV) refers to the value of a bet compared to the line when the market closes.
Comparing the closing line to the line that was bet allows bettors to know if their bet beat the closing line and got a good bet, or if the line moved against them. What does this mean? Let me explain.
As an example, the current line on a Liverpool vs Arsenal match might be Liverpool -0.5 Asian handicap at 2.00 odds. What we all know, though, is that number isn't static. That handicap is going to fluctuate as the days go on based on new information that comes out between now and game time, as well as the number of bets sportsbooks are receiving on each side.
The closing line would be what the handicap is right when the game starts.
So, if you bet on Liverpool -0.5 at 2.00 odds and the closing line ends up being Liverpool -0.5 at 1.85 odds, you would have earned closing line value. Conversely, if the odds ended at 2.15, then you would not have beat the closing line.
The goal: Always gain as much closing line value as you can. Beat the closing line on 60%+ of your bets and you're virtually guaranteed long-term profits.
Why is Closing Line Value Important?
Every sports bettor is going to track their wins and losses in terms of profit and also number of bets won versus the number of bets lost. This is obviously important, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
Instead, sharp bettors determine the quality of their bets by monitoring them vs the closing line.
If your bet beats the closing line, then that is determined to be a good bet, and the more you are able to beat the closing line the more you will profit in the long run.
Why the closing line matters:
- Most efficient price: The closing line incorporates maximum information and betting action
- Represents true probability: With all bets in and all news known, the closing line is the market's best estimate
- Sharp money has acted: Professional bettors have placed their wagers, moving the line to fair value
- Predictive of profit: Beating CLV 60%+ of the time correlates strongly with profitability
Generally, the closer we get to the game, the more accurate the lines are going to be. This is because the more information the market has at its disposal, the better it is able to determine lines.
Real example:
If you get a bet at +100 (2.00) and the CLV ends up at -110 (1.91), the market is telling you that this bet has a 52.4% chance of hitting, but the odds you got it at reflected only a 50% chance. Stacking bets like this is how sharp bettors are able to turn a profit betting on sports.
Similarly, let's say you bet Liverpool -0.5 at 2.00 and then reports come out that Mohamed Salah is rested and the line moves to Liverpool -0.5 at 2.30 (worse for Liverpool backers). In this case, you would not have beaten the closing line. If Liverpool end up winning by exactly one goal, not betting the closing line would have been the difference between profit and a push or loss.
This is how people consistently lose money betting on sports—by not beating the closing line.
How to Beat the Closing Line
Understanding why it is important to beat the closing line is all fine and dandy, but useless if you don't know how to consistently do so.
Luckily, there are three proven strategies for beating the closing line consistently.
Strategy 1: Positive Expected Value Betting
The easiest way to consistently beat the closing line is to bet Positive Expected Value bets.
Positive EV betting involves finding odds that are mispriced relative to the true probability of an event. When you bet with positive EV based on sharp market analysis (like comparing to Pinnacle's No Vig Price), you're getting better odds than the market will eventually settle at.
How it works:
- FairOdds Terminal calculates fair odds by removing vig from sharp books
- You find recreational sportsbooks offering better odds than the fair price
- These +EV bets typically beat the closing line because you bet before the market corrects the mispricing
- The closing line adjusts to fair value, but you already locked in better odds
These are the types of bets that will consistently beat the closing line because they are sharp, profitable bets based on mathematical edge rather than hunches.
Strategy 2: Line Shopping
This next method won't guarantee you'll beat the closing line as often as Positive EV betting, but it is still incredibly helpful: make sure you are always getting the best line on the bets you want to make.
To do this, you need to be signed up for as many sportsbooks as possible so that you can always find the book with the best odds.
Example of line shopping impact:
Let's say you want to bet Real Madrid to win. Here are the odds at different books:
- DraftKings: Real Madrid +185
- Bet365: Real Madrid +190
- FanDuel: Real Madrid +190
- Caesars: Real Madrid +195
- BetMGM: Real Madrid +190
You would be doing yourself a disservice if you stuck with DraftKings and bet Real Madrid at +185 when Caesars has them at +195.
If the CLV for Real Madrid moneyline ends anywhere between +186 to +194, then line shopping would have been the difference between beating the closing line and not doing so.
This obviously wouldn't guarantee that your bet will win, but consistently getting the best odds will maximize your profits over time. If there were two gas stations right across the street from each other and one was 50 cents more expensive, why would you choose to get gas there?
Strategy 3: Timing Your Bets
Lastly, sharp bets that are made earlier in the week are generally better than later in the week. It is a general rule to try to get in on a market earlier rather than later.
The reason for this is that the sportsbooks will change the odds as the money comes in. So, if you are consistently betting on sharp opportunities, then more times than not your bet will beat the closing line.
Why early betting beats closing lines:
- Opening lines have less information priced in
- Sharp bettors haven't fully acted yet to move lines
- Inefficiencies exist before the market finds equilibrium
- You can exploit mispricing before correction occurs
However, there are exceptions:
- Sometimes waiting for injury news creates better value
- Reverse line movement can make late bets valuable
- Live betting can offer superior odds if you time it right
Real Examples: Beating vs Not Beating CLV
Example 1: Beating the Closing Line ✓ Good
Your bet: Manchester United -1 Asian handicap at 2.00 odds
Closing line: Manchester United -1 at 1.85 odds
CLV result: Beat the closing line
Analysis: You got 2.00 odds, but by game time the market settled at 1.85. This means you got better odds than the final market consensus. Even if United loses, this was a good bet based on CLV.
Example 2: Not Beating the Closing Line ✗ Bad
Your bet: Barcelona -1.5 goals at 2.10 odds
Closing line: Barcelona -1.5 at 2.35 odds
CLV result: Did NOT beat the closing line
Analysis: You got 2.10 odds, but by game time the odds improved to 2.35. The market moved against you, indicating you bet into poor value. Even if Barcelona wins, this was a poor bet based on CLV.
How to Track Closing Line Value
Tracking CLV is essential for measuring your betting performance. Here's how to do it:
Manual tracking method:
- Record your bet: team, odds, handicap, time placed
- At game start, record the closing line for that same bet
- Compare: Did you get better odds than the closing line?
- Track percentage: How many bets beat the closing line vs total bets?
What to track:
- Individual bet CLV: Did this specific bet beat the closing line?
- Overall CLV percentage: What % of your total bets beat the closing line?
- CLV by sport: Are you beating the close more in soccer than basketball?
- CLV by bet type: Do your moneyline bets beat CLV more than handicaps?
- CLV by sportsbook: Which books give you the best closing line value?
- 75%+ beat CLV: Exceptional, professional-level betting
- 65-75% beat CLV: Excellent, you're a sharp bettor
- 55-65% beat CLV: Good, profitable long-term
- 50-55% beat CLV: Okay, marginal profitability
- Below 50% beat CLV: Problem—you're consistently betting into poor value
- CLV measures process: Are you finding value?
- Win% measures results: Did variance go your way this month?
- CLV is predictive: It forecasts long-term profitability
- Win% is noisy: Short-term luck distorts the signal
- Hardest: Premier League, NBA, major tennis (very efficient)
- Medium: Serie A, Bundesliga, college basketball
- Easier: Lower leagues, minor sports, props
- +EV based on No Vig Price calculations
- Beat the closing line
- Focusing only on wins: Celebrating winning bets that didn't beat the close
- Sample size too small: Judging CLV on 20 bets instead of 500+
- Not tracking at all: Assuming you're beating the close without data
- Chasing the close: Betting worse and worse odds just to "get action" before game time
- Ignoring losing CLV bets: Dismissing losses when you didn't beat the close as "bad luck"
- Set with less information
- More exploitable by sharp bettors
- Better opportunities to beat the closing line
- All information priced in
- All sharp money has acted
- Represents market consensus on true probability
Interpreting your CLV percentage:
Key insight: Not every single bet you make is going to beat the closing line, but as long as you beat the closing line more times than not, you will be profitable in the long run.
CLV vs Win/Loss Record: What Matters More?
Many bettors obsess over their win percentage. This is a mistake.
You can have a 55% win rate and lose money if you're not beating the closing line. Conversely, you can have a 48% win rate and make money if you consistently beat the close.
Why CLV beats win percentage:
A bettor who beats the closing line on 70% of bets but only wins 48% of those bets is doing something right. Variance will even out over time, and they'll profit.
A bettor who wins 55% of bets but beats the closing line on only 40% is getting lucky. Eventually, variance will correct and they'll start losing.
Advanced CLV Strategies
Once you understand basic CLV, implement these advanced tactics:
1. Track CLV by Market Efficiency
Some markets are easier to beat than others:
You might beat CLV 80% of the time in lower leagues but only 60% in Premier League. Both can be profitable—know your strengths.
2. Combine CLV with EV Tracking
Track both expected value and CLV. Ideally, your bets should be:
When both indicators align, you have exceptionally strong bets.
3. Use CLV to Validate Strategies
If you're trying a new betting strategy (like dropping odds or reverse line movement), track its CLV separately. If a strategy consistently produces 65%+ CLV, it's working. If it's below 50%, abandon it.
Common CLV Mistakes
Even experienced bettors make these errors when working with Closing Line Value:
CLV and Market Efficiency
Understanding market efficiency helps you know when and where to find CLV opportunities:
Opening lines (less efficient):
Closing lines (most efficient):
This is why betting positive EV early often results in beating the closing line—you're exploiting inefficiencies before the market corrects them.
Ready to start tracking your Closing Line Value? FairOdds Terminal helps you find +EV bets that beat the closing line consistently.
Closing Line Value FAQ
What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
Closing Line Value is the difference between the odds you bet at and the odds when the market closes (at game start). If you bet Cowboys -7 and the line closes at -10, you beat the closing line. Consistently beating the closing line indicates profitable betting.
Why is CLV more important than win/loss record?
CLV measures process quality, while win/loss measures results (which include luck). You can win bets without beating the closing line and still lose money long-term. Conversely, beating the closing line 60%+ of the time ensures long-term profitability regardless of short-term variance.
How do I beat the closing line?
Three main strategies: 1) Bet positive expected value opportunities identified through sharp odds analysis, 2) Line shop across multiple sportsbooks to get the best available odds, 3) Bet earlier in the week when lines are less efficient and more exploitable.
What is a good CLV percentage?
Beating the closing line on 55-60% of bets is good. 65-70% is excellent. 75%+ is exceptional and indicates professional-level betting. Even 52-55% CLV can be profitable long-term if your bet sizing is disciplined.
Can I have positive CLV but still lose money?
Yes, in the short term. Variance means you can beat the closing line consistently but still experience losing streaks. However, over thousands of bets, positive CLV virtually guarantees profitability. Focus on CLV, not short-term results.
How do closing lines become more accurate?
As game time approaches, more information becomes available (injuries, weather, lineups), and more money is bet, which helps the market find the true probability. Sharp bettors bet early to exploit less efficient opening lines, then the market adjusts.
Should I always bet early to beat the closing line?
Not always. Bet early when you have an edge from information or analysis before the market adjusts. But sometimes waiting for late injury news or line movements creates better opportunities. The key is finding value, not just betting early.
Is CLV the same as Expected Value?
No, but they're related. Expected Value (EV) measures your theoretical profit based on true probabilities. CLV measures if you got better odds than the market's final consensus. Positive CLV strongly correlates with positive EV over time.