Middle Betting Strategy Guide

Learn how to potentially win both sides of a bet by middling point spreads and totals

What is Middle Betting?

Middle betting (or middling) is a strategy where you bet both sides of a game at different lines, creating a window where both bets can potentially win.

Unlike arbitrage betting which guarantees profit, a middle bet has three possible outcomes:

• Middle hits: Both bets win (big profit)
• One side wins: Break even or small loss
• One side wins: Break even or small loss

How Middle Betting Works

Step 1: Place Your Initial Bet

You start by betting one side of a game at a specific line. This could be:

• Point spread (e.g., Team A -6.5)
• Total (e.g., Over 45.5)

Step 2: Wait for Line Movement

The betting line moves due to betting action, injuries, weather, or other factors. This creates a gap between your position and the current line.

Step 3: Bet the Opposite Side

If the line has moved favorably, bet the opposite side at the new line. This creates your middle window.

Step 4: Hope for the Middle

If the final score lands in the middle window, both bets win and you collect double payouts!

Middle Betting Examples

Example 1: NFL Point Spread Middle

Example 2: NBA Totals Middle

Example 3: MLB Totals Middle

How to Find Middle Opportunities

1. Line Shopping

Compare lines across multiple sportsbooks. Sometimes different books have significantly different lines at the same time, creating instant middle opportunities.

2. Track Line Movement

Monitor how lines move throughout the week. Significant movement (3+ points in NFL, 5+ in NBA) can create middling opportunities.

3. Key Numbers in NFL

NFL games often land on key numbers: 3, 7, 10, 14. If you can middle around these numbers, hit probability increases.

• Example: -2.5 to +3.5 middle (covers the key number 3)
• Example: -6.5 to +7.5 middle (covers the key number 7)

4. Use Middling Tools

FairOdds Terminal's Middle Bets feature scans for middle opportunities across 60+ sportsbooks automatically.

5. Bet Early, Middle Late

Place your initial bet early in the week when lines first open. If the line moves significantly by game day, add the opposite side to create a middle.

Calculating Middle Expected Value

Not all middles are created equal. You need to calculate if the potential profit justifies the cost.

Expected Value Formula

EV = (Probability of Middle × Double Win) + (Probability of One Side × Small Loss)

Types of Middles

Point Spread Middles

Most common in NFL and NBA. You bet both sides at different spread numbers.

• NFL: Look for 3+ point gaps (e.g., -3 vs +6)
• NBA: Look for 5+ point gaps (e.g., -4.5 vs +9.5)

Totals Middles

Bet both Over and Under at different numbers.

• NFL: 4+ point gap (e.g., Over 44.5 and Under 48.5)
• NBA: 6+ point gap (e.g., Over 215.5 and Under 221.5)

Live Betting Middles

Bet pregame, then middle with in-game live betting when lines move dramatically based on game flow.

Derivative Middles

Middle correlated markets like team total and game total, or first half spread and full game spread.

Middle Betting Strategy Tips

1. Focus on High-Probability Middles

Wider middle windows hit more often. A 5-point NFL middle is better than a 1-point middle.

2. Target Key Numbers

In NFL, games land on 3, 7, 10, and 14 more than other margins. Create middles around these numbers.

3. Calculate Expected Value

Don't middle blindly. Use historical data to estimate hit probability and calculate if the middle is +EV.

4. Manage Your Bankroll

Middle betting requires capital on both sides. Don't tie up too much of your bankroll in middles.

5. Combine with Other Strategies

Professional bettors use middles alongside value betting and arbitrage for diversified profit streams.

Middle vs Arbitrage vs Scalp

When to Use Each

• Arbitrage: When you want guaranteed profit with zero risk
• Middle: When potential upside justifies the small loss risk
• Scalp: When you want guaranteed profit and middle window is very unlikely

Common Middling Mistakes

❌ Mistake 1: Forcing Middles

Not every line movement creates a good middle. If the window is too small or hit probability is low, skip it.

❌ Mistake 2: Ignoring Vig

Two -110 bets means you're paying vig twice. Factor this into your EV calculations.

❌ Mistake 3: Over-Middling

Tying up too much bankroll in middles that might not hit. Balance with other strategies.

❌ Mistake 4: Not Calculating Hit Probability

Assuming a middle will hit without checking historical data leads to -EV middles.

❌ Mistake 5: Betting Both Sides at Same Book

This violates bookmaker terms. Always use different sportsbooks for each side.

Advanced Middling Concepts

Correlated Middles

Some middles have correlated outcomes. Example: If you middle a team total and game total, they're not independent events.

Live Betting Middles

In-game betting creates dynamic middle opportunities as lines shift based on game flow. Requires quick decision-making.

Alternate Line Middles

Some books offer alternate spreads at different prices. You can create middles by using alternate lines at the same book (though this may violate terms).

Props Middles

Player props (yards, points, rebounds) can be middled when lines differ significantly across books.

Tools for Middle Betting

• FairOdds Terminal: Automatically finds middle opportunities across 60+ sportsbooks
• Line tracking: Monitor line movement to identify middle setups
• Expected value calculator: Calculate if middles are +EV
• Historical data: Research middle hit rates for different sports

Key Takeaways

✓ What Middles Are:

• Betting both sides at different lines to create a winning window
• Can win both bets if result lands in the middle
• Small loss if middle doesn't hit (unlike arbitrage)
• Higher upside than arbitrage but not guaranteed

✓ Best Practices:

• Focus on NFL key numbers (3, 7, 10, 14)
• Calculate expected value before placing
• Wider middle windows have higher hit probability
• Use different sportsbooks for each side
• Don't force middles - wait for good opportunities

✓ When to Middle:

• ✅ Wide middle window (3+ points NFL, 5+ points NBA)
• ✅ Covering key numbers
• ✅ Positive expected value after calculations
• ❌ Very narrow windows (1 point)
• ❌ High vig on both sides (reduces EV)
• ❌ Unclear hit probability

FAQ: Middle Betting