Dropping Odds Strategy: Follow Sharp Money for Value Bets

Learn how to exploit line movements at sharp sportsbooks to find positive EV opportunities before recreational books adjust.

The dropping odds strategy is one of the most powerful value betting approaches available to sports bettors. By following the sharpest money in the market, you can identify mispriced odds before slower sportsbooks catch up.

This top-down approach has been used by professional bettors and syndicates for years. With FairOdds Terminal, you can monitor these movements in real-time and act quickly on opportunities.

What is the Dropping Odds Strategy?

The Dropping Odds Strategy is a top-down sports value betting approach that involves monitoring the odds of a sharp sportsbook in order to find value bets on soft sportsbooks which are slower to adjust to new information that has entered the market.

Here's how it works in practice:

• Sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle move their odds when new information enters the market
• This information could be large bets from pros, injury news, weather updates, or lineup changes
• Recreational sportsbooks copy Pinnacle's odds, but with a delay of 1-5 minutes
• During this window, you can place bets at the old (better) odds before they adjust

The key insight is that not all sportsbooks react to new information at the same speed. Sharp books like Pinnacle react instantly, while recreational books lag behind.

The Sharpest Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Pinnacle is widely considered the sharpest sportsbook in the world. Other sportsbooks across the world copy Pinnacle's odds because of this, but crucially they copy Pinnacle on a delay of up to a few minutes! (The delay can vary depending on the sportsbook and the specific market.)

This delay gives quick bettors a window of opportunity to place value bets on slower sportsbooks before the odds are adjusted to reflect the new information that has entered the market.

Why is Pinnacle so sharp?

• They welcome winners: Pinnacle doesn't limit successful bettors, unlike most books
• High betting limits: They accept large bets, attracting professional action
• Low margins: Pinnacle operates with some of the lowest vigs in the industry
• Efficient markets: With high volume and sharp action, their odds are extremely accurate
• Market setter: Other sportsbooks use Pinnacle as the benchmark for setting their own lines

Monitoring Dropping Odds in Real-Time

Because it's impossible to manually monitor thousands of Pinnacle's odds waiting for a drop, you need value betting software that does this for you. FairOdds Terminal displays dropping odds in real-time, allowing you to see movements as they happen and act quickly to place bets at slower sportsbooks.

The terminal shows you all the critical information you need to identify value bets, including the exact price you need to beat in order for your bet to have positive expected value.

The terminal displays key data for each dropping odds opportunity:

• Event details: Teams, league, match time
• Market type: Moneyline, spread, totals, etc.
• Pinnacle's old odds: The odds before the drop
• Pinnacle's new odds: The current odds after the drop
• No Vig Price (NVP): The fair odds you need to beat
• Other sportsbooks: Current odds at recreational books
• Timestamp: When the drop occurred (speed matters!)

Filter Settings to Find the Best Opportunities

Setting up proper filters in the terminal is essential to focus on the most profitable dropping odds opportunities while avoiding noise.

We recommend starting with filter settings for the three biggest sports: soccer, basketball, and tennis. Once you have more experience, you can adjust them to your own preferences.

Recommended Filter Parameters:

• Minimum odds drop: 5-10% movement (filters out noise)
• Minimum opening odds: 1.50+ (avoids heavy favorites with less value)
• Maximum opening odds: 5.00 or less (avoids longshots with high variance)
• Time to event: 2-48 hours (avoids last-minute unreliable movements)
• League filters: Focus on major leagues with high liquidity
• Market types: Moneylines and totals tend to work best for beginners

Sport-specific recommendations:

• Soccer: Focus on major European leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga), Asian markets work well
• Basketball: NBA and Euroleague provide best opportunities, high-volume markets
• Tennis: ATP and WTA, excellent for both live and pre-game opportunities

Real Example of a Dropping Odds Value Bet

Let's break down a real-world example to see how this strategy works in practice.

In this case, while monitoring the terminal, we spotted a basketball game in the Europe Champions League with a significant Pinnacle odds drop. Here's what happened:

• Event: Nymburk vs Alba Berlin (Basketball - Europe Champions League)
• Market: Spread, home team, line 1
• Initial Pinnacle odds: 1.77
• Pinnacle dropped to: 1.68 (5.6% drop)
• Time: 4 minutes 11 seconds before the drop appeared in terminal

This 5.6% drop from 1.77 to 1.68 signals that sharp money or new information entered the market. If a recreational sportsbook still offered odds of 1.75 or higher on this same spread, and the No Vig Price was calculated to be around 1.70, this would qualify as a positive expected value bet.

Timeline breakdown:

• 1:50:00 PM - Sharp money hits Pinnacle: Large bet(s) or new information causes Pinnacle to drop from 1.77 to 1.68
• 1:52:18 PM - Drop visible in terminal: FairOdds Terminal displays the odds movement (4m 11s after drop)
• 1:52:30 PM - Check other books: Quickly check recreational sportsbooks for unchanged odds
• 1:52:45 PM - Bet placed: If you find odds above 1.70 (NVP), place the bet immediately
• 1:55:00 PM - Odds adjusted: Slower sportsbooks copy Pinnacle and adjust their spreads

This basketball example from the Champions League demonstrates how even a 5.6% drop can create betting opportunities when other sportsbooks are slower to react.

The Price to Beat: No Vig Price (NVP)

In the example above, we only took the bet because the price was above the No Vig Price (NVP). The terminal displays the NVP for each dropping odds opportunity, and it is vital that you only place a bet when the odds you are getting are higher than it.

The NVP is the single most important metric for identifying value bets.

What is No Vig Price?

The No Vig Price represents the fair odds after removing the bookmaker's margin (vig or juice). It's calculated by taking the market odds and eliminating the built-in profit margin that bookmakers charge.

Why NVP matters:

• Betting above NVP = Positive expected value (+EV)
• Betting below NVP = Negative expected value (-EV)
• NVP gives you the exact threshold for profitability
• It accounts for the vig removal, showing true fair odds

Simple rule: Only bet when your odds > NVP. In our basketball example, if the NVP is 1.70 and a recreational book offers 1.75, you have a +EV bet. If they only offer 1.65, skip it—you'd be betting at a disadvantage.

Advanced Dropping Odds Strategies

Once you've mastered the basics, consider these advanced techniques:

1. Multi-Book Monitoring

Don't just check one recreational book. Have accounts at 5-10 sportsbooks and check all of them when you get an alert. Different books adjust at different speeds.

2. Market Selection

Some markets are more profitable than others for dropping odds:

• Best: Moneylines, totals, Asian handicaps
• Good: Main spreads, team totals
• Avoid: Exotic props, player props (too much variance)

3. Steam Chasing vs. Reverse Line Movement

Traditional dropping odds follows steam (sharp money moving lines). But you can also profit from reverse line movement, where the line moves opposite to public betting percentages.

4. Combining with Arbitrage

Sometimes a dropping odds opportunity also creates an arbitrage situation if another book moves their odds in the opposite direction. This gives you a guaranteed profit.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Even experienced bettors make these errors when implementing dropping odds strategy:

• Ignoring NVP: Betting just because odds dropped, without checking if your price beats NVP
• Being too slow: Taking 5+ minutes to place a bet means odds have likely already adjusted
• Chasing every alert: Not all drops are equal. Focus on significant movements (7%+ drops)
• Wrong stake sizing: Betting too much on individual alerts increases variance
• Ignoring league quality: Lower leagues have less liquidity and less reliable odds movements
• Not tracking CLV: Failing to measure your Closing Line Value to verify strategy effectiveness

Tools and Setup for Success

To effectively implement dropping odds strategy, you need:

• Odds monitoring software: FairOdds Terminal displays Pinnacle movements in real-time
• Multiple sportsbook accounts: 5-10 recreational books with varying adjustment speeds
• Fast internet: Every second counts when placing bets
• Funded accounts: Pre-deposit at multiple books so you can bet immediately
• Bankroll management: Proper staking to handle variance from +EV betting
• Dedicated screen space: Keep the terminal open while monitoring opportunities

Expected Results and Variance

Dropping odds strategy is a long-term +EV approach. Here's what to expect:

• Win rate: Typically 48-52% (close to 50/50 on moneylines)
• ROI: 2-5% per bet over thousands of wagers
• Variance: Short-term swings are normal; focus on long-term edge
• Volume: Need hundreds or thousands of bets to see results smooth out
• CLV: Positive Closing Line Value is the best indicator you're doing it right

Remember: You're not trying to predict outcomes. You're finding odds that are mispriced relative to the true probability, as indicated by sharp market movements.

Ready to start following sharp money? FairOdds Terminal displays Pinnacle dropping odds in real-time so you can spot value opportunities instantly.

Dropping Odds Strategy FAQ