Hedging Bets: How to Hedge a Bet & Lock in Profits

Master the art of hedging to guarantee profits and remove the sweat from your sports bets.

Hedging is one of the most powerful risk management strategies in sports betting. When executed properly, it can turn uncertain outcomes into guaranteed profits.

Whether you're protecting a large parlay, securing gains on a futures bet, or simply want to sleep better at night, understanding how to hedge is essential for serious bettors.

What Does Hedging Your Bets Mean?

The objective of a hedge in sports betting is to guarantee your bet won't lose by betting both sides of the same game.

For example, let's say you placed a wager on the Dodgers +110 against the Marines. The game starts, and you start getting nervous about your Dodgers bet and are unsure if they will actually win.

This is when you would hedge. You would place a wager on the Marines +100 so that no matter what happens, you would have a bet that won.

How to Hedge a Bet

There are multiple ways a sports bettor can hedge a bet. Let's explore each strategy in detail.

1. Live Game Hedging

The Dodgers/Marines example from earlier would be an instance of hedging during a live game. You were on the Dodgers +110, but as you were watching the game you decided you wanted to back the Marines instead and took them at +100.

No matter what outcome happens here, you are protected and guaranteed to have one bet that wins. This is particularly useful when:

• Your team is losing and you want to cut potential losses
• Your team is winning but you're nervous about them holding the lead
• Momentum shifts dramatically during the game
• Key players get injured or ejected

2. Pre-Game Hedging When Odds Move

Another way you could hedge is if the odds or spread change before the game starts, and you bet the other side before the match begins.

Using the same Dodgers/Marines game as an example, instead of betting the Dodgers, let's say you bet the Marines moneyline at +100 odds. As the day goes on, you start to get nervous about your Marines bet and decide you want to hedge out of it and bet on the Dodgers moneyline.

If you can find Dodgers moneyline odds at +100 or better, you could hedge out without losing any money and possibly guarantee a profit!

This strategy works best when:

• Line movement creates better odds on the opposite side
• You bet early and public money moves the line favorably
• News breaks that affects the game (weather, injuries, lineup changes)
• Sharp money moves the line and creates value on the other side

3. Middling: Win Both Bets

Lastly, there is a way you can hedge a bet, both live or pre-game, that could have both bets win. This is a sports betting strategy called middling.

The way middling works is you would still bet both sides of the same game, but instead of betting the same spread (Dodgers +8.5/Marines -8.5), you would instead bet a spread or total at two different numbers that would guarantee at least one hits, with the option of both possibly hitting as well.

Example: You bet Dodgers +8.5 at -110. Later, the line moves to Marines -6.5 at -110. If you bet both, and the Marines win by exactly 7 or 8 points, both bets win! At minimum, you're guaranteed to win one.

How to Use Math for Hedging Sports Bets

Wagering the correct dollar amounts is the essential step to executing a hedge. This is where hedge calculators become invaluable.

The calculator takes into account the odds on either side of your hedge. Then, you can modify the dollar amounts of your hedge based on how much money you've got staked on a particular outcome, and the calculator will give you a dollar amount that guarantees a mathematical profit (or slimmer loss) if you bet on the opposite outcome.

A proper arbitrage and hedge calculator takes varying sportsbook odds and finds you ways to secure a profit off both. Typically, large dollar amounts are needed to secure a decent hedge.

Example calculation:

• Original bet: $100 on Suns +200 (potential win: $200)
• Hedge bet: Calculate how much to place on the opponent to guarantee profit
• If opponent is at -150, you'd need to bet roughly $180 to secure a small profit either way
• Result: You win $20-40 no matter which team wins

Say there are positive EV odds on the Suns and Warriors. Using the calculator, you'd bet on both teams to win the game, each on a different sportsbook. Regardless of the winner, you'd net a profit.

NFL Bet Hedging

Betting on the NFL can get tricky, as it's one of the most underdog-prominent sports in the world. The term "Any Given Sunday" isn't famous without reason.

The time to hedge in NFL betting is when you have a parlay with high winning stakes coming down to the final leg or two.

NFL hedging scenario: If I had a six-team parlay and my final bet was the Chiefs to win on Monday Night Football, I may consider putting some money on their opponent to secure a profit.

Given the nature of parlays, it's obviously all or nothing. A six-leg parlay likely has a very large payout, and if the Chiefs lose, you'd win nothing.

NFL hedging makes particular sense because:

• Underdogs win frequently in the NFL (40%+ of the time)
• Late-game comebacks are common
• Weather and injury factors can dramatically shift outcomes
• Prime-time games often feature unpredictable results

When Should You Hedge Sports Bets?

You should hedge in sports betting in three key situations:

Securing a Profit

If you have a large parlay or a futures bet that is close to cashing, you may want to hedge those bets to guarantee a profit.

Choosing to lock in profits ultimately depends on a few factors:

• Your stake and potential winnings: Larger amounts warrant more hedging consideration
• Your risk tolerance: Some bettors prefer guaranteed smaller profits over risking it all
• Your confidence level: If you're very confident in the outcome, hedging may not be necessary
• Opportunity cost: Consider what else you could do with guaranteed funds

Cutting Losses

The same premise works for a losing bet, in that you could cut your losses by betting the opposite side of a wager by looking at the live odds while the game is being played.

To successfully execute this move, it's essential that the odds and dollar amounts make sense for the situation. You don't want to throw good money after bad just to salvage something.

When to hedge a loss:

• Your bet is clearly going south but odds still offer value on the other side
• You can recover 40-60% of your stake with a reasonable hedge
• The game momentum has completely shifted against you
• Live odds have moved significantly in your favor for the hedge

Middling a Bet

As detailed earlier, it is possible to hedge a bet while also giving yourself the chance of having both bets win. This would involve betting the same game, but at two different numbers.

Middling opportunities arise when:

• The line moves 2+ points from your original bet
• You find favorable odds on both sides at different books
• Totals move significantly due to weather or lineup changes
• Key numbers in football (3, 7, 10) create middle windows

Hedging vs Arbitrage Betting

While hedging and arbitrage betting are similar concepts, they have key differences:

Arbitrage: Planned from the start. You identify odds discrepancies across sportsbooks and bet both sides simultaneously to lock in guaranteed profit.

Hedging: Reactive strategy. You already have a bet placed, and you're deciding whether to protect it by betting the other side based on changing circumstances.

Both strategies can be powerful, but hedging is more about risk management while arbitrage is about exploiting market inefficiencies.

Common Hedging Mistakes to Avoid

Even experienced bettors make these hedging errors:

• Over-hedging: Betting so much on the hedge that you barely profit either way
• Hedging too early: Odds might move more favorably if you wait
• Hedging with bad odds: Accepting poor value just to hedge kills your profit margin
• Emotional hedging: Hedging out of fear rather than mathematical logic
• Not using calculators: Guessing amounts instead of calculating optimal hedge sizes
• Ignoring juice: Forgetting that betting both sides at -110 means you're paying vig twice

Advanced Hedging Strategies

Once you master basic hedging, consider these advanced techniques:

Partial Hedging

Instead of hedging the full amount for a guaranteed profit, hedge only 50-70% of your exposure. This lets you still win big if your original bet hits, while protecting a portion of your risk.

Scalping Futures

On long-term futures bets, hedge at multiple points as odds shift. If you bet a team to win the championship at +5000 and they make the finals at +150, you can lock in significant profit regardless of the final outcome.

Multi-Way Hedging

In three-way markets (soccer, hockey), you can sometimes hedge across all three outcomes (win/lose/draw) for a guaranteed profit using low-hold strategies.

Ready to start hedging like a pro? FairOdds Terminal provides real-time odds across 60+ sportsbooks to find the best hedging opportunities.

Hedging Bets FAQ