Fair odds are the odds implied by true probabilities with the bookmaker's vig removed. Comparing fair odds to offered odds helps determine if a wager has positive EV.

Edge is the expected return percentage on a bet (e.g., +4%). In EV tools it typically reflects the gap between fair odds and the offered odds after vig removal.

Positive-EV Betting: Walking Through an Example

Q: What is Positive Expected Value (EV)?

Expected Value (EV) is the long-run average outcome of a bet. A bet is positive EV when the true probability implies a higher fair price than the sportsbook's offered odds, creating a positive expected return.

Q: What is vig (juice) and why does it matter?

Vig (juice) is the bookmaker's margin embedded in prices. Removing vig reveals fair odds and the true implied probabilities across all outcomes, which you need to assess whether a bet is positive EV.

Q: What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?

CLV measures how your bet price compares to the market's closing price. Beating the close consistently is a strong indicator that your process finds positive EV.

Q: What is the Kelly Criterion?

Kelly is a bankroll management formula that sizes stakes based on your edge and odds. Many bettors use a fractional Kelly (e.g., 25–50%) to reduce volatility.

Q: What is line shopping?

Line shopping is comparing prices across multiple bookmakers to find the best odds. Better prices improve EV and are essential for long-term profitability.

A quick walkthrough on finding and placing Positive-EV bets.

Sports betting can feel overwhelming at first, especially once you start to dive into the maths and formulas. The good news? Once you understand positive EV betting, you can apply it to bet on any sports—soccer, basketball, tennis, and more.

How to Find & Place Profitable (Positive-EV) Sports Bets

Let’s take a step back…

First we should ask: ‘Why should you want to bet Positive EV?’

The answer is simple: to make money.

Positive-EV betting is straightforward. It’s all about finding value. The bookmaker’s business model is to charge 4–10% ‘vig’ (juice) on every wager a bettor places.

If the vig feels abstract, think of it like this: imagine you can buy ‘ten-dollar notes’ for €9.60 or sell them for €10.40. Nice, right? You’re charging an €0.80 spread on a ten-dollar s.

That’s exactly how sportsbooks make money, they charge a spread on all wagers.

However, it’s still possible to make solid profits from sports betting.

Why? Because sportsbooks have different prices from one another.

Since books set lines independently, we’re hunting for those rare spots where we can ‘beat’ the vig. When we do, we’ve found a Positive-EV bet, a mathematically profitable wager.

Step 1: Set Up Your Positive-EV Filters

Now, into the actual Positive-EV betting… it’s go time.

First, set up your Positive-EV filters.

For the most part, keep all sports and leagues selected. The only two filters to add are:

Sportsbooks: filter to the books you have access to and aren’t limited on.
EV % minimum how much you want to average make per bet
Odds Range do you want to play lower variance bets (1.0-2.0) or take more variance bets with over 2.0 odds.

Step 2: Find a Bet You Like

Next, find a bet you like. It really is that simple. The Soft Odd is pinned with turquoise. In the screenshot example, Australia vs England at 3.75 on SportsBet is the play.

Fairoddsterminal.com automatically sorts bets by profit margin. With my filters, Australia vs England moneyline at 3.75 is the most profitable bet on the market. fairodds.com is scanning 10,000+ odds every second to surface these rare opportunities where sportsbooks slip up.

Step 3: Move Fast and Place Your Bet

Now place your bet quickly. Betting is like day trading: great lines do not last forever. You need to move fast and know how to navigate each sportsbook.

Step 4: Manage Variance & Let Your Profits Stack Up

The ‘Percent’ column on fairoddsterminal.com means profit margin, also called edge.

My wager on Australia vs England moneyline has a 11.58% edge.

Since I staked €11, the profit margin in dollars is €11.00 × 11.58% = €1.22. In other words, this bet is worth €2.21 based on getting 3.75.

Would it still be worth €1.22 at 3.0? No.

Everything depends on the price.

Just as you’d happily buy a ten euro bill for €9.60 but not for €10.40, we want this bet at 3.75 because it’s highly Positive EV (profitable).

Ready to try it yourself? Open fairoddsterminal.com and start scanning for Positive-EV bets.

Positive-EV Betting FAQ

What is Positive Expected Value (EV)?

EV is the long-run average outcome of a bet. A bet is positive EV when the true probability implies a higher fair price than the sportsbook’s offered odds, creating a positive expected return.

What is vig (juice) and why does it matter?

Vig is the bookmaker’s margin embedded in prices. Removing vig reveals fair odds and true implied probabilities across outcomes. You need this to decide whether a bet has positive EV.

What are fair odds?

Fair odds are derived from true probabilities with vig removed. Comparing fair odds to the book’s price tells you if a wager is +EV.

What is implied probability?

Implied probability converts odds into a percentage chance (e.g., decimal 2.50 ≈ 40%). To assess a whole market, remove vig first to get fair implied probabilities.

What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?

CLV compares your bet price to the market’s closing price. Consistently beating the close is a strong indicator you’re capturing positive EV.

What does edge mean?

Edge is the expected return percentage on a bet (e.g., +4%). Tools compute edge from the gap between fair odds and the offered price after vig removal.

What is the Kelly Criterion?

Kelly sizes stakes based on your edge and odds. Many use fractional Kelly (e.g., 25–50%) to reduce volatility and drawdowns.

What is line shopping?

Line shopping compares prices across multiple bookmakers to find the best odds. Better prices improve EV and long-term profitability.