Over/Under Total Betting Explained

Learn how to bet totals in soccer, basketball, and other sports—plus strategies that actually work.

Over/under betting involves wagering on whether the combined score will exceed or fall below a set number. You don't need to predict the exact total—only whether it will be higher or lower than the sportsbook's line.

Total bets and over/under bets are identical terms used interchangeably across betting markets. This betting type works across all major sports including soccer, basketball, tennis, hockey, baseball, and many others.

What is a Total or Over/Under Bet?

An over/under bet asks whether the combined final score will finish above or below a predetermined number.

Bookmakers establish a projected total (referred to as "the line"), and you decide whether the actual combined score will go over or under that threshold.

Real-World Examples by Sport

Three Possible Outcomes of Over/Under Bets

1. The Over Hits

When the combined final score surpasses the sportsbook's line, over bets win. Everyone who wagered on the over collects their winnings.

Example: NBA matchup with 227.5 point total ends Lakers 120, Celtics 110 = 230 total points. Over bettors win.

2. The Under Hits

When the combined final score stays below the sportsbook's line, under bets win. Everyone who wagered on the under receives their payout.

Example: Same NBA game at 227.5 points finishes Lakers 115, Celtics 109 = 224 total points. Under bettors win.

3. Push (Tie)

When the total lands precisely on the line (only possible with whole numbers, not .5), the bet pushes. All stakes are returned—no winners or losers.

Example: NFL game set at exactly 48 points finishes Patriots 27, Bills 21 = 48 points total. Push occurs—all bets refunded.

Different Types of Over/Under Bets

While betting on the full game total is most common, there are many variations of totals betting:

Individual Team Totals

Instead of betting on the combined score, you bet on one specific team's total.

Example: Chiefs team total Over 27.5 points. Only Kansas City's score matters, not the opponent's.

Half / Quarter Totals

Bet totals for specific time periods rather than the full game:

• First half over/under: Only points scored in first half count
• Second half over/under: Only points scored in second half count
• Quarter totals: Individual quarter scoring (common in NBA)
• Period totals: Hockey has three periods, bet each separately

Strategy tip: If first half was low-scoring, second half over might offer value as teams open up offensively.

Player Prop Totals

Over/under on individual player statistics:

• NFL: QB passing yards (Over/Under 275.5 yards)
• NBA: Player points (LeBron Over/Under 27.5 points)
• MLB: Pitcher strikeouts (Over/Under 6.5 strikeouts)
• Soccer: Player shots on target (Over/Under 3.5)

Season-Long Futures Totals

Win totals for entire seasons are hugely popular, especially in NFL:

Example: Kansas City Chiefs season win total set at 11.5 wins. You bet whether they'll win 12+ games (Over) or 11 or fewer (Under) during the regular season.

Live Betting Totals

Over/under lines are constantly updated during games based on current score and time remaining.

Example: NBA game at halftime, Celtics lead Lakers 65-60. Original total was 222.5, but live total for rest of game might be adjusted to 105.5 based on first half pace.

How to Bet Over/Unders and Totals

Luckily, betting on an over/under is incredibly easy. The total is one of three main markets for every single sporting event, so no matter what sportsbook you use, the over/under is as easy to bet on as a spread or moneyline bet.

Step-by-step:

1. Navigate to your desired game
2. Find the totals market (usually listed with moneyline and spread)
3. Click on the over or under depending which side you want to bet (the over will always be on top)
4. Confirm the bet slip is correct
5. Place your bet

It is as easy as that!

How are Over/Unders and Totals Calculated?

There are a ton of factors that go into coming up with the game total for an over/under, and the process is different for each sport.

Sportsbooks take into account almost any type of stat you can imagine:

• Offensive efficiency: Goals scored per game, xG (expected goals), shot accuracy
• Defensive efficiency: Goals conceded per game, xGA (expected goals against)
• Player injuries: Key attackers or defenders out
• Weather: Rain, wind, cold affecting play
• Tactical approach: Defensive-minded teams vs attacking teams
• Head-to-head history: Previous matches between these teams
• Motivation: Must-win games tend to be more cautious

They also run thousands of game simulations to come up with a total that creates balanced betting on both sides.

Soccer-Specific Total Factors

• Team tactics: Possession-based teams (Barcelona, Man City) vs counter-attacking teams
• Recent form: Teams in goal-scoring runs vs defensive slumps
• Competition type: Cup games often more cautious, league games more open
• Fixture congestion: Teams playing midweek may be tired, affecting scoring

Over/Under and Total Betting Strategies

Unfortunately, it is not as easy as just betting an over or under and consistently profiting. If it was that easy, we'd all be rich!

What I can say is that unders consistently hit at a higher percentage than overs, but still not at a rate where you can bet every under and profit. This is because of the vig that sportsbooks charge.

If money is coming in on the over, that line is bound to increase, creating value on the under.

With that said, there are still legitimate strategies and trends that you can follow, aside from normal game analysis.

Strategy 1: Season Trends

One thing that is important to keep track of are early season trends, and understand what is just noise and what is legitimate.

Example: NBA Early Season

The 2021 NBA season saw unders hitting at a historic rate to start the year. This was a direct result of new foul rules the NBA instituted, but it took a couple of weeks before the sportsbooks caught on. This created a window of opportunity for sharp bettors.

Totals started off the year inflated based on the previous season's scoring, giving smart bettors weeks of profitable under betting before the market corrected.

Soccer example: When major leagues change offside rules or introduce new tactical trends (e.g., high pressing becoming dominant), totals may need weeks to adjust to new scoring patterns.

Strategy 2: Weather Impact

Weather is one of the most important factors you can monitor for total bets, especially in soccer.

Weather that favors unders:

• Heavy rain: Wet pitch affects passing, dribbling, shooting accuracy
• Strong wind: Disrupts long balls, crosses, and shot accuracy
• Extreme cold: Ball behavior changes, players less fluid
• Snow: Dramatically slows play and reduces scoring

Example: If a Premier League match in December has forecasted heavy rain and wind, and the total is set at 2.5 goals, the under becomes more attractive as shooting accuracy typically drops 10-15% in poor weather.

Strategy 3: Situational Trends

One trend that hits at a high rate but doesn't happen very frequently: decisive playoff matches tend to go under.

Champions League knockout example: When top teams face each other in must-win knockout games, defensive solidity takes priority over attack. Teams play more cautiously, resulting in lower-scoring matches.

The logic is that players try much harder on defense, and generally attacking players are a little more anxious, which leads to worse finishing on chances. These high-pressure matches often end 1-0, 2-1, or 1-1, going well under inflated totals.

Strategy 4: Line Shopping Totals

Just like spreads and moneylines, total lines vary across sportsbooks:

Example:

• Bet365: Over 2.5 goals at 1.91
• Pinnacle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.95
• DraftKings: Over 2.5 goals at 1.88

If you're betting the over, Pinnacle at 1.95 is the best option. Always shop across multiple books for the best total and best odds.

Even better: sometimes one book has the total at 2.5 while another has 3.0. Betting under 3.0 is significantly easier than under 2.5.

Does Overtime Count in Over/Under Bets?

Fortunately for over bettors, and unfortunately for under bettors, overtime does count for almost every total.

The only time OT wouldn't count would be for specific markets such as:

• "90 minutes only" markets: Excludes extra time and penalties in soccer
• "Regulation only" markets: Excludes overtime in basketball/hockey
• Half/quarter-specific totals: Only that period counts

But anything other than specifically marked markets would count towards the total. Always check the market rules if you're unsure.

Soccer example: If you bet over 2.5 goals and the match is 1-1 after 90 minutes, then goes to extra time where two more goals are scored (final 3-1), the over wins because extra time counts unless specified otherwise.

Total Betting by Sport

Soccer/Football Totals

Soccer totals typically range from 1.5 to 4.5 goals. The most common total is 2.5 goals.

Typical odds: Over 2.5 at 1.91, Under 2.5 at 1.91

Key factors:

• League scoring averages (Bundesliga high-scoring, Serie A defensive)
• Team styles (Liverpool attack-minded, Atletico Madrid defensive)
• Stakes (cup finals often low-scoring, mid-table clashes more open)

Basketball Totals

NBA totals typically range from 210 to 235 points. High-scoring league with predictable patterns.

Key factors:

• Pace of play (Warriors fast-paced, Grizzlies slow-paced)
• Defensive efficiency (Celtics strong defense lowers totals)
• Back-to-back games (tired teams score less)
• Playoff basketball (lower totals, better defense)

Common Total Betting Mistakes

• Always betting overs: Public loves points, but unders win more often
• Ignoring weather: In soccer, weather drastically affects scoring
• Not line shopping: Missing 2.5 vs 3.0 total differences between books
• Chasing inflated lines: Betting over 3.5 when the market opened at 2.5
• Forgetting context: Derby matches and high-stakes games often go under
• Not tracking closing lines: Missing that your totals bets consistently don't beat the close

Advanced Total Betting

First Half / Second Half Totals

You can bet totals for specific periods:

• First half over/under: Typically half of the full game total
• Second half over/under: Can offer value if first half was unusually high/low scoring

Live Betting Totals

Totals adjust in real-time during matches. If a soccer match is 0-0 at halftime with an original total of 2.5, the live total might drop to 1.5, creating potential value on the over if you think goals are coming.

Team Totals

Bet on one team's scoring independently:

• Manchester City team total over 2.5 goals
• Lakers team total over 115.5 points

This removes variance from the opponent's scoring.

Ready to find +EV total bets? FairOdds Terminal compares totals across 60+ sportsbooks to find the best lines and identify value opportunities.

Over/Under Total Betting FAQ