Over/Under Total Betting Explained

Learn how to bet totals in soccer, basketball, and other sports—plus strategies that actually work.

An over/under bet in the sports betting world is a wager on the total number of goals or points in a game. The important thing to note is that you are not trying to guess the exact amount, just if the total number of goals/points scored will go over or under an amount.

A total bet is the same thing as an over/under bet. The terms are used interchangeably. You can bet totals on any sports—soccer, basketball, tennis, hockey, baseball, and more.

What is a Total or Over/Under Bet?

An over/under bet is a wager on whether the combined score will be over or under a specific number.

Let's use a real-life soccer example to illustrate:

There are also over/under bets regarding props too. You could bet player total goals over/under 0.5, or total corners over/under 10.5, or total shots on target over/under 8.5.

How to Bet Over/Unders and Totals

Luckily, betting on an over/under is incredibly easy. The total is one of three main markets for every single sporting event, so no matter what sportsbook you use, the over/under is as easy to bet on as a spread or moneyline bet.

Step-by-step:

1. Navigate to your desired game
2. Find the totals market (usually listed with moneyline and spread)
3. Click on the over or under depending which side you want to bet (the over will always be on top)
4. Confirm the bet slip is correct
5. Place your bet

It is as easy as that!

How are Over/Unders and Totals Calculated?

There are a ton of factors that go into coming up with the game total for an over/under, and the process is different for each sport.

Sportsbooks take into account almost any type of stat you can imagine:

• Offensive efficiency: Goals scored per game, xG (expected goals), shot accuracy
• Defensive efficiency: Goals conceded per game, xGA (expected goals against)
• Player injuries: Key attackers or defenders out
• Weather: Rain, wind, cold affecting play
• Tactical approach: Defensive-minded teams vs attacking teams
• Head-to-head history: Previous matches between these teams
• Motivation: Must-win games tend to be more cautious

They also run thousands of game simulations to come up with a total that creates balanced betting on both sides.

Soccer-Specific Total Factors

• Team tactics: Possession-based teams (Barcelona, Man City) vs counter-attacking teams
• Recent form: Teams in goal-scoring runs vs defensive slumps
• Competition type: Cup games often more cautious, league games more open
• Fixture congestion: Teams playing midweek may be tired, affecting scoring

Over/Under and Total Betting Strategies

Unfortunately, it is not as easy as just betting an over or under and consistently profiting. If it was that easy, we'd all be rich!

What I can say is that unders consistently hit at a higher percentage than overs, but still not at a rate where you can bet every under and profit. This is because of the vig that sportsbooks charge.

If money is coming in on the over, that line is bound to increase, creating value on the under.

With that said, there are still legitimate strategies and trends that you can follow, aside from normal game analysis.

Strategy 1: Season Trends

One thing that is important to keep track of are early season trends, and understand what is just noise and what is legitimate.

Example: NBA Early Season

The 2021 NBA season saw unders hitting at a historic rate to start the year. This was a direct result of new foul rules the NBA instituted, but it took a couple of weeks before the sportsbooks caught on. This created a window of opportunity for sharp bettors.

Totals started off the year inflated based on the previous season's scoring, giving smart bettors weeks of profitable under betting before the market corrected.

Soccer example: When major leagues change offside rules or introduce new tactical trends (e.g., high pressing becoming dominant), totals may need weeks to adjust to new scoring patterns.

Strategy 2: Weather Impact

Weather is one of the most important factors you can monitor for total bets, especially in soccer.

Weather that favors unders:

• Heavy rain: Wet pitch affects passing, dribbling, shooting accuracy
• Strong wind: Disrupts long balls, crosses, and shot accuracy
• Extreme cold: Ball behavior changes, players less fluid
• Snow: Dramatically slows play and reduces scoring

Example: If a Premier League match in December has forecasted heavy rain and wind, and the total is set at 2.5 goals, the under becomes more attractive as shooting accuracy typically drops 10-15% in poor weather.

Strategy 3: Situational Trends

One trend that hits at a high rate but doesn't happen very frequently: decisive playoff matches tend to go under.

Champions League knockout example: When top teams face each other in must-win knockout games, defensive solidity takes priority over attack. Teams play more cautiously, resulting in lower-scoring matches.

The logic is that players try much harder on defense, and generally attacking players are a little more anxious, which leads to worse finishing on chances. These high-pressure matches often end 1-0, 2-1, or 1-1, going well under inflated totals.

Strategy 4: Line Shopping Totals

Just like spreads and moneylines, total lines vary across sportsbooks:

Example:

• Bet365: Over 2.5 goals at 1.91
• Pinnacle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.95
• DraftKings: Over 2.5 goals at 1.88

If you're betting the over, Pinnacle at 1.95 is the best option. Always shop across multiple books for the best total and best odds.

Even better: sometimes one book has the total at 2.5 while another has 3.0. Betting under 3.0 is significantly easier than under 2.5.

Does Overtime Count in Over/Under Bets?

Fortunately for over bettors, and unfortunately for under bettors, overtime does count for almost every total.

The only time OT wouldn't count would be for specific markets such as:

• "90 minutes only" markets: Excludes extra time and penalties in soccer
• "Regulation only" markets: Excludes overtime in basketball/hockey
• Half/quarter-specific totals: Only that period counts

But anything other than specifically marked markets would count towards the total. Always check the market rules if you're unsure.

Soccer example: If you bet over 2.5 goals and the match is 1-1 after 90 minutes, then goes to extra time where two more goals are scored (final 3-1), the over wins because extra time counts unless specified otherwise.

Total Betting by Sport

Soccer/Football Totals

Soccer totals typically range from 1.5 to 4.5 goals. The most common total is 2.5 goals.

Typical odds: Over 2.5 at 1.91, Under 2.5 at 1.91

Key factors:

• League scoring averages (Bundesliga high-scoring, Serie A defensive)
• Team styles (Liverpool attack-minded, Atletico Madrid defensive)
• Stakes (cup finals often low-scoring, mid-table clashes more open)

Basketball Totals

NBA totals typically range from 210 to 235 points. High-scoring league with predictable patterns.

Key factors:

• Pace of play (Warriors fast-paced, Grizzlies slow-paced)
• Defensive efficiency (Celtics strong defense lowers totals)
• Back-to-back games (tired teams score less)
• Playoff basketball (lower totals, better defense)

Common Total Betting Mistakes

• Always betting overs: Public loves points, but unders win more often
• Ignoring weather: In soccer, weather drastically affects scoring
• Not line shopping: Missing 2.5 vs 3.0 total differences between books
• Chasing inflated lines: Betting over 3.5 when the market opened at 2.5
• Forgetting context: Derby matches and high-stakes games often go under
• Not tracking closing lines: Missing that your totals bets consistently don't beat the close

Advanced Total Betting

First Half / Second Half Totals

You can bet totals for specific periods:

• First half over/under: Typically half of the full game total
• Second half over/under: Can offer value if first half was unusually high/low scoring

Live Betting Totals

Totals adjust in real-time during matches. If a soccer match is 0-0 at halftime with an original total of 2.5, the live total might drop to 1.5, creating potential value on the over if you think goals are coming.

Team Totals

Bet on one team's scoring independently:

• Manchester City team total over 2.5 goals
• Lakers team total over 115.5 points

This removes variance from the opponent's scoring.

Ready to find +EV total bets? FairOdds Terminal compares totals across 60+ sportsbooks to find the best lines and identify value opportunities.

Over/Under Total Betting FAQ