Spread Betting Explained: What Does -2, -3.5, -7 Mean?

Learn how point spreads and Asian handicaps work to make uneven matchups equal betting opportunities.

Point spreads are wagers that focus on the winning margin rather than simply picking the winner. Sportsbooks use spreads to level the playing field between mismatched teams, creating balanced betting opportunities where both sides have roughly equal chances of winning.

This comprehensive guide covers spread betting mechanics across various sports, explains what different spread numbers represent, and helps you decide when spreads offer better value than moneyline bets. Spread betting is available for any sport offering handicap markets, including soccer, basketball, tennis, and more.

What is a Point Spread?

Sportsbooks rarely view matchups as perfectly balanced 50-50 propositions—what bettors call "pick 'em" games. When teams have unequal chances of winning, offering identical odds on both sides would create an unprofitable situation for bookmakers.

Example: Consider a Premier League match where title-contending Manchester City faces relegation-threatened Sheffield United. If bookmakers offered the same odds on both teams to win, every smart bettor would immediately back Manchester City.

Statistical analysis and common sense both indicate Manchester City would win this matchup over 80% of the time. Equal pricing would make betting on City extremely profitable for bettors and unprofitable for sportsbooks.

The solution: Point spreads (known as Asian handicaps in soccer) restore balance by forcing favorites to win by a specific margin to cover the bet.

How Does Point Spread Work?

Spread betting balances the odds between mismatched teams. Bettors often choose spreads over moneyline bets when they want to avoid backing a team to win outright.

When a team is heavily favored with moneyline odds below 1.50, the potential payout becomes unattractive. Betting that same favorite to cover a spread—winning by a set margin—typically offers around 1.91 odds, providing much better value.

Spreads also excel for underdog betting. While backing an underdog to win outright might seem too risky, spreads allow you to profit if the game stays competitive, even if your team ultimately loses.

What Does -2, -3.5 and -7 Mean in Point Spreads?

Understanding spread notation is crucial: minus (-) indicates the favorite, while plus (+) marks the underdog.

-2 Spread (Whole Number)

A -2 spread requires the team to win by more than two points or goals to cover.

If the team wins by exactly two points, the bet results in a push—your stake is refunded with no profit or loss.

Examples:

• Barcelona -2 goals: Needs 3+ goal victory to win, exactly 2 goals = push, 1-goal win or worse = loss
• Lakers -2 points: Needs 3+ point victory to win, exactly 2 points = push, 1-point win or loss = loss

What Does -3.5 Spread Mean?

A -3.5 spread demands the team win by at least four points or goals. The half-point eliminates tie scenarios—your bet either wins or loses, no pushes possible.

Different sports require different considerations. In soccer, a -3.5 spread means winning by exactly 3 goals results in a losing bet.

Examples:

• Real Madrid -3.5 goals: Requires 4+ goal margin (4-0, 5-1, 6-2, etc.)
• Warriors -3.5 points: Requires 4+ point margin

What Does +1.5 Spread Mean?

A +1.5 spread allows the underdog to lose by one point or goal while still winning your bet.

Examples:

• +1.5 in NFL: Team loses 24-23 (1-point margin) and your bet still wins
• +1.5 in soccer: Team loses 2-1 (1-goal margin) and your bet still wins
• Outright victory: If the +1.5 team wins the game, your bet wins regardless of margin

What Does -7.5 Spread Mean?

A -7.5 spread requires the favorite to win by eight or more points. The 7.5 line appears frequently in NFL and college football markets.

Examples:

• Chiefs -7.5: Needs 8+ point victory (28-17, 31-20, 35-24, etc.)
• Opponent +7.5: Can lose by 7 points or less and still cover the spread

-7 Spread (Key Number)

The -7 line represents a critical number in multiple sports. Winning by exactly seven points creates a push—your bet is refunded, while winning by more covers and winning by less loses.

Basketball games frequently end with 7-point margins. Soccer matches rarely finish with exactly 7-goal differences, making -7 less significant than smaller handicap numbers in soccer betting.

Understanding "The Hook" (Half-Point)

Bettors call the half-point (.5) added to spreads "the hook." This small number dramatically changes betting results and ranks among the most critical concepts in spread betting.

Why sportsbooks use the hook:

• Eliminates pushes (ties) - every bet has a winner and loser
• Sportsbooks collect vig on every bet (no refunds)
• Bettors prefer certainty of win/loss over potential pushes

Key Numbers in Spread Betting

Certain margins of victory occur more frequently than others. These are called "key numbers," and the hook becomes especially important around them.

NFL Key Numbers

In the NFL, games often end with specific margins due to scoring increments (touchdowns = 7 points, field goals = 3 points):

• 3 points: The most common margin (field goal difference)
• 7 points: Second most common (one touchdown difference)
• 10 points: Touchdown + field goal
• 6 points: Two field goals or touchdown without extra point
• 14 points: Two touchdown difference

Use our Half Point Calculator to see if buying the hook is worth it.

NBA Key Numbers

Basketball spreads have different key numbers than football:

• 3, 5, 7, 9: Common final margins in NBA games
• Why different: Basketball scoring is more fluid (2-3 point baskets)

Asian Handicap Explained (Soccer)

Asian handicap is soccer's version of spread betting. It's the most popular spread format in European and Asian betting markets.

Standard Asian Handicaps

-1.5 Asian Handicap (Favorite):

• Team must win by 2+ goals to win the bet
• Win by 1 goal = loss
• Draw or loss = loss

+1.5 Asian Handicap (Underdog):

• Team can lose by 1 goal and you still win the bet
• Draw = win
• Win = win

Quarter-Goal Asian Handicaps

Asian handicaps also use quarter-goal lines like -0.75, -1.25, -1.75. These split your stake between two handicaps:

-0.75 handicap (also written as -0.5, -1):

• Half your stake on -0.5
• Half your stake on -1
• Team wins by 1 goal: -0.5 wins, -1 pushes (you get half stake back)
• Team wins by 2+ goals: both win (full payout)

This reduces variance compared to full-goal handicaps.

Examples of Point Spreads

How to Read Point Spreads

When a point spread is listed on a sportsbook, it is accompanied by a "+" or a "-" sign.

The "-" sign means that the team is the favorite, so Manchester City might be listed as "-2.5 goals."

The underdog (Burnley in our example) is listed at "+2.5 goals."

The logical way to think about this format is to imagine that Manchester City is beginning the game with -2.5 goals. If that were the case, according to the oddsmakers, City and Burnley would have a near-equal win probability.

Understanding the odds:

While the chances of the bet hitting may be about equal in the eyes of the sportsbook, the general odds for a point spread are still 1.91 on both sides of the bet. That built-in margin is called the vig, and is how sportsbooks ensure they make money.

However, sometimes the book doesn't view the spread as exactly equal so will have the prices at something like 1.87/1.95. The total implied probability across both sides generally adds up to around 104-105%. If not, that probably means the book is taking more or less vig than is standard.

Understanding the Vig (Juice)

The "vig" (short for vigorish) is what the sportsbook charges for accepting your wager. It's also called the "juice." This is how sportsbooks make money.

Standard Spread Pricing: -110

The standard pricing for spread betting is -110 on both sides.

Alternative Pricing

Spreads don't always have -110 on both sides. When betting is imbalanced, sportsbooks adjust the vig:

• Celtics -5 (-115) / Knicks +5 (-105): More money on Celtics, so sportsbook makes Celtics more expensive
• Cowboys -7 (-120) / Eagles +7 (+100): Heavy action on Cowboys, Eagles become +EV at even money

When vig reaches -120 or more, sportsbooks often adjust the spread itself rather than increase vig further:

• Celtics -5 (-120) becomes → Celtics -5.5 (-110)
• This rebalances betting action on both sides

Pick 'Em (Evens) Spreads

A "pick 'em" or "evens" bet occurs when two teams are so evenly matched that the sportsbook sets no spread at all.

The Connection Between Point Spread and Moneyline

While point spreads and moneylines are separate bet types, they're connected. The spread reveals how big the gap is between two teams.

When to use spread vs moneyline:

• Bet the spread: When favorite moneyline is -200 or worse (too expensive)
• Bet the moneyline: When you're confident in outright winner and spread seems risky
• Bet underdog spread: When you think game will be close but underdog might not win
• Bet underdog moneyline: When you think underdog actually wins outright

Note: Moneyline to spread conversion varies by sport. A 7-point NFL win is not equivalent to a 7-point NBA win in terms of probability.

How are Point Spreads Made and Calculated?

Sportsbooks calculate point spreads using a combination of data-driven computer formulas and human input.

Factors that influence spreads:

• Statistical power ratings: Team strength models and algorithms
• Injuries and suspensions: Key players out or doubtful
• Form and momentum: Recent results and performance trends
• Matchup history: Head-to-head records
• Home advantage: Generally worth 0.25-0.5 goals in soccer, 2-3 points in basketball/football
• Travel and schedule: Fatigue from fixtures, away trips
• Motivation: Must-win games, dead rubbers, etc.

Home Field Advantage in Spreads

Home field advantage is built into every point spread. The adjustment typically ranges from 0 to 3 points depending on the team's home performance.

Soccer home advantage example: If Liverpool and Manchester United were playing on neutral ground, the spread might be Liverpool -0.5. At Anfield, it becomes Liverpool -1 or -1.5 due to home advantage.

Professional handicappers calculate their own spreads and compare them to sportsbook lines to find discrepancies and exploit value.

Why Do Spread Lines Move?

Like all betting odds, point spreads can and will move based upon a number of different factors.

Betting action: If a substantial amount of money comes in on one side of the line (called a steam move), the sportsbooks will have to adjust the line to entice bettors to take the other side. Sportsbooks always want to have as close to equal amounts of money being bet on each side as possible so they are not at risk of taking a huge loss.

Sharp bettors: If one sharp bettor is well known for winning consistently and bets a large sum on one side, that alone could compel the sportsbook to move the line. See our guide on reverse line movement for more details.

New information:

• Injury news (key player ruled out)
• Weather changes (rain, wind affecting play)
• Lineup announcements (rotation, starting XI changes)
• Motivation shifts (other results affecting standings)

Since point spreads are volatile, the timing of a bet can be crucial. If a bettor sees an opening line that they predict will move significantly, they want to get in early before it shifts.

Once it changes in the predicted direction, not only does that bettor have a positive EV bet, but it also opens up opportunities to middle the bet or place an arbitrage bet.

When to Bet Point Spreads

A bettor should bet the point spread when they think that the team will cover the spread.

Bet the favorite spread when:

• The moneyline is 1.50 or lower (too expensive)
• You think the favorite will dominate by multiple goals/points
• The spread offers better value than the moneyline
• You want consistent 1.91 odds instead of volatile moneyline prices

Bet the underdog spread when:

• You think the game will be close but aren't confident in an outright upset
• The underdog has shown they can compete recently
• You want to back the dog without needing them to win
• The spread is large enough to provide cushion (e.g., +3.5 in soccer)

If someone was thinking about betting on Manchester City but thought it would be a close one-goal game, it would not be advisable to place a bet on City -2.5. However, if the person thought City would really dominate Burnley, betting the -2.5 goal spread at 1.91 odds would make a lot more sense than taking a risky moneyline at 1.20 odds or lower.

Three Potential Outcomes of Point Spread Bets

Every spread bet has three possible outcomes: win, loss, or push.

Understanding ATS (Against The Spread) Records

ATS records show how often a team has covered the spread in past games. This is different from their win-loss record and is crucial for spread betting analysis.

How to use ATS records:

• Teams with poor ATS records as favorites are often overbet by public
• Teams with strong ATS records as underdogs consistently keep games close
• Track home vs away ATS splits for additional edges
• Recent ATS trends (last 5-10 games) matter more than full season

Warning: ATS records show the past, not the future. Use them as one tool among many, not as a standalone betting system.

How to Bet the Spread

When betting a point spread, it's always a good idea to look around at various books to try and get the highest value bet possible.

Example: DraftKings may have the line at Real Madrid -2, while FanDuel has -2.5 and Caesars at -3.

• Betting the favorite (Real Madrid): DraftKings at -2 is best (easiest to cover)
• Betting the underdog: Caesars at +3 is best (most cushion)

As always, be aware of the price of the wager as well. One book might offer -2 at 1.87 odds, while another offers -2 at 1.91 odds. The 1.91 price is better value.

Point Spreads vs Asian Handicaps

Different regions use different terminology, but the concept is identical:

American-style (Point Spread):

• Used primarily in US markets
• Typically -110 odds on both sides
• Half-point spreads eliminate pushes

European/Asian-style (Asian Handicap):

• Used globally, especially in soccer
• Odds vary more widely (1.80-2.10 typical range)
• Quarter-goal handicaps (0.25, 0.75) for reduced variance
• Eliminates the draw in soccer markets

Both achieve the same goal: making uneven matchups equal betting opportunities.

Custom Spreads and Alternate Lines

Bettors can typically also bet custom spreads. For example, if the spread is set at -2, but a bettor feels the favorite team is going to win by much more than that, they can bet -4 or -5 for increased odds.

Example:

• Standard line: Bayern Munich -1.5 at 1.91 odds
• Alternate line: Bayern Munich -2.5 at 2.40 odds (better payout, harder to cover)
• Alternate line: Bayern Munich -0.5 at 1.57 odds (easier to cover, worse payout)

This gives bettors flexibility to match their confidence level with their risk/reward preference.

Common Spread Betting Mistakes

• Not line shopping: Accepting -2.5 at one book when another offers -2
• Ignoring the vig: Betting -120 odds when -110 is available elsewhere
• Betting heavy favorites: Laying -10 goals in soccer is extremely risky
• Not accounting for garbage time and backdoor covers: Late meaningless scoring can swing spreads. See our backdoor cover guide
• Chasing losses with alternate spreads: Betting Bayern -4.5 at high odds to recover losses

Live Betting on Point Spreads

Most sportsbooks offer live betting where spreads adjust in real-time as the game progresses. This creates dynamic betting opportunities throughout the match.

Live spread betting strategies:

• Fade early momentum: If favorite jumps ahead quickly, live spread shrinks—value on underdog
• Injury reactions: If star player gets injured, live spread moves dramatically
• Middle opportunities: Bet Lakers -6.5 pre-game, then Nets +10.5 live = potential middle
• Quick decisions required: Live spreads update within seconds, act fast

Ready to find the best spread bets? FairOdds Terminal compares point spreads and Asian handicaps across 60+ sportsbooks to find +EV opportunities with the best lines.

Spread Betting FAQ