What is a Moneyline Bet? Complete Guide

Master the simplest bet type in sports—picking winners with moneyline bets.

A moneyline bet is the simplest bet in all of sports. You just bet on who you think is going to win that event. No point spreads, no handicaps, no totals—just pick the winner.

Whether it's betting on a team to win a match or an individual athlete, the moneyline bet is one of the most popular bet types in all of sports betting.

How Does a Moneyline Bet Work?

The odds that you will see for a moneyline bet are formatted in American odds, and they are centered around winning or wagering $100 per bet.

When betting on a favorite, the odds will have a minus (-) in front of the number. This indicates the amount of money you'd need to risk to win $100.

When betting on an underdog, the odds will have a plus (+) in front of the numbers. This indicates the amount of money you'll win per $100 risked.

The only catch is that the odds are adjusted based on the matchup, so the winnings are greatly impacted by the matchup and what the odds are.

Simple examples:

Favorite -475: Risk $475 to win $100 profit

Underdog +350: Risk $100 to win $350 profit

What Does it Mean to Bet on the Moneyline?

Betting on the moneyline is quite simply betting on your chosen team to win. If you bet on the Liverpool moneyline, they must win for your bet to cash.

There are some instances where your bet would push, or you'd receive your money back with no winnings. This can happen in moneyline bets if your selected team ties the game. This can also happen in tennis or other individual sports where forfeiting is in play.

Moneyline outcomes:

  • Win: Your team wins the match → you profit
  • Loss: Your team loses the match → you lose your stake
  • Push (tie): Match ends in a draw → stake returned (not available in all markets)

Moneyline Bets in Different Sports

Football, basketball, and hockey are all team sports where moneyline betting is extremely popular.

Soccer/Football: Most markets use 1X2 format (win/draw/win) where draws are a separate outcome. American-style moneylines typically push on draws, while European 1X2 markets treat draws as a losing bet for moneyline backers.

Basketball: Very popular for moneyline betting as games rarely end in ties. Clean win/loss outcomes make moneylines straightforward.

Hockey: Can have ties in regulation, but most moneyline bets include overtime/shootouts, making pushes rare.

Tennis/MMA: No ties possible in completed matches, making moneylines the primary bet type. Retirements or no-contests typically void bets.

How to Calculate Moneyline Odds

No matter which sportsbook you use, they will always make the calculations easy for you to read. But if you want to know the formula for favorites and underdogs behind the odds, please see below.

Moneyline Favorite Calculation

Formula: Multiply the amount you want to win by (moneyline odds / 100)

Example: Manchester City -475

Let's say you want to win $50.

$50 × (475/100) = $237.50

Result: You would need to risk $237.50 on City at -475 to profit $50.

Moneyline Underdog Calculation

There are two ways to calculate the odds for an underdog, depending on what number you want to get—the amount you will win based on a wager, or how much you need to wager to win a specific amount.

Formula 1: Multiply your wager by (moneyline odds / 100)

Formula 2: Divide the amount you want to win by (100 / moneyline odds)

Example: Brighton +350 (Formula 1)

If you want to bet $50 on Brighton, the formula would be:

$50 × (350/100) = $175

Result: A $50 bet would win $175 profit.

Example: Brighton +350 (Formula 2)

Now, let's say you want to win $100. That would look like:

$100 ÷ (100/350) = $28.57

Result: You would need to risk $28.57 to profit $100 with +350 odds.

What Happens if You Bet $100 on a -140 Moneyline?

In this scenario, you'd be betting on a favorite, so you'd win less money than you risk.

A $100 risk at these odds would profit $71.43, which would be your profit. The overall return would be $171.43, since a win returns your stake plus profit.

A -140 bet has a mathematical probability of 58.33% to hit (before vig removal).

What is the Juice in Moneyline?

As detailed in our article on vig in sports betting, juice is essentially the tax that sportsbooks charge on a given bet to ensure they remain profitable. And yes, there is juice in moneyline bets.

It is essentially the difference between the two moneyline odds that creates the bookmaker's margin.

Example:

  • Real Madrid moneyline: +100 (implied probability: 50%)
  • Barcelona moneyline: -120 (implied probability: 54.55%)
  • Total: 104.55%
  • Juice: 4.55%

Generally, sportsbooks are going to have higher juice on the favorite because they understand the psychology of a bettor is to want to bet on favorites.

When to Bet Moneylines

There are plenty of strategies surrounding when and how to bet moneylines. As a general rule of thumb, it is not advisable to consistently be betting on huge favorites straight up.

It might sound counterintuitive to advise against betting on favorites, but the goal of sports gambling is to make money, NOT to win the highest percentage of bets.

The math behind avoiding heavy favorites:

If you are betting on a favorite at -300 odds, that bet has an implied winning percentage of 75%. This means if you bet on 4 favorites at -300 odds, you would need to win 3 of those 4 bets just to break even.

Conversely, if you bet on 3 underdogs at +200 odds, you only need ONE of those bets to hit in order to break even.

Key insight: While there are some scenarios in which it might be worth it to bet on a heavy favorite (when you have positive expected value), the easiest way to profit over time on straight-up moneyline bets is to bet on "plus money" underdogs.

Everybody has heard the term "anything can happen on any given Sunday", and while that might sound like a cliché, it holds true. And not just for football, but for every sport.

There are always going to be upsets, and if you identify which underdogs you think are going to win, you won't need to even win half of your bets to profit.

Can you Parlay Moneyline Bets?

Yes! This is another strategy for making moneyline favorites more profitable.

Obviously upsets do happen, as the previous section detailed, but another way to be profitable long-term betting on moneylines is to parlay heavy favorites together.

Again, it is on the bettor to decide which heavy favorites aren't on upset alert, but parlaying 3-4 favorites can make the odds much more palatable by removing the juice or even getting plus-money odds.

Parlay example:

Four teams are heavy favorites:

  • Manchester City -400
  • Bayern Munich -350
  • Paris Saint-Germain -450
  • Liverpool -380

Individually, you would have to risk a lot on these teams to make any meaningful profits. But having them parlayed together decreases the juice and increases the odds all the way up to around +130.

The tradeoff: Better odds, but all four must win. If even one loses, the entire parlay loses.

Do Moneyline Odds Move?

Yes, betting lines move all the time.

The lines can move for a number of reasons. Like any other type of bet, the lines change based on how the money comes in. So if more people are putting money on Real Madrid at +100, you will see the odds move to -110 or -120 as the week progresses.

Reasons moneyline odds move:

  • Betting volume: Heavy action on one side forces books to adjust odds
  • Sharp money: Large bets from professional bettors (reverse line movement)
  • Injury news: Key players ruled out or doubtful
  • Lineup announcements: Starting XI changes, rotation decisions
  • Weather: Rain, wind, or extreme conditions affecting play
  • Suspensions: Red card accumulation, disciplinary bans

Unfortunately, there isn't much you can do to protect yourself regarding late lineup or injury news. But getting in on early lines is a legitimate strategy for beating the closing line.

If you think a team is being undervalued and that the odds are going to swing, then it would be beneficial to place a bet before the odds change.

Moneyline Betting Strategy Tips

1. Focus on Plus-Money Underdogs

Target underdogs at +120 or better. You only need to win 40-45% of these bets to profit long-term.

2. Avoid Heavy Favorites

Unless you have strong +EV reason, avoid favorites at -250 or worse. The juice kills your profitability.

3. Line Shop Aggressively

Moneyline odds vary significantly between sportsbooks. A team might be +150 at one book and +175 at another. Always shop for the best price.

4. Parlay Favorites Wisely

If you want to bet heavy favorites, parlay 2-3 together for better odds. But never go beyond 4 legs—variance crushes long parlays.

5. Track Your CLV

Monitor whether your moneyline bets beat the closing line. This is the best indicator of long-term profitability.

6. Use Moneylines for Arbitrage

Moneylines create excellent arbitrage opportunities when different books have conflicting opinions on favorites.

Common Moneyline Mistakes

  • Betting heavy favorites for "safe money": Nothing is safe, and the juice kills your profit margin
  • Not shopping lines: Accepting -150 when another book offers -135
  • Chasing parlays: Adding 6+ legs for big payouts with minimal win probability
  • Ignoring draw possibilities: In soccer, forgetting that 1X2 markets have three outcomes
  • Betting with bias: Always backing your favorite team regardless of value

Ready to find moneyline value? FairOdds Terminal compares moneyline odds across 60+ sportsbooks to find the best prices and +EV opportunities.

Moneyline Betting FAQ

What is a moneyline bet?

A moneyline bet is the simplest bet in sports—you just bet on who you think will win the match or event. No point spreads or handicaps involved, just pick the winner.

How do moneyline odds work?

Moneyline odds use American format centered around $100. Favorites have minus (-) odds showing how much to risk to win $100 (e.g., -150 means risk $150 to win $100). Underdogs have plus (+) odds showing how much you win per $100 risked (e.g., +200 means win $200 on a $100 bet).

How do you calculate moneyline payouts?

For favorites: multiply your wager by (odds/100). For underdogs: multiply your wager by (odds/100). Example: $50 on +350 odds = $50 × 3.5 = $175 profit. $50 on -475 odds = $50 × (100/475) = $10.53 profit.

Should I bet moneyline favorites or underdogs?

Generally, plus-money underdogs (+100 or better) offer better long-term value than heavy favorites (-200 or worse). You need to win 75% of bets at -300 odds just to break even, but only 33% of bets at +200 odds to break even.

Can moneyline bets push?

Yes, if the match ends in a tie or draw. In soccer's 1X2 markets, draws are a separate outcome. In sports without draw options, ties result in a push and your stake is returned. Some individual sports allow pushes if a player forfeits.

Can you parlay moneyline bets?

Yes. Parlaying multiple moneyline favorites together can create better odds. Instead of betting 4 favorites separately at -300 each, you can parlay them for combined odds around +130, making the juice more palatable.

Why do moneyline odds move?

Moneyline odds move based on betting volume (where the money is going) and new information (injuries, weather, lineups). If more money comes in on one side, books adjust the odds to balance their exposure. Sharp bettors bet early to exploit less efficient opening lines.

What's the difference between moneyline and 1X2?

Moneyline (American style) is win or lose, with ties pushing. 1X2 (European style) has three outcomes: 1 (home win), X (draw), 2 (away win). In 1X2, draws lose your moneyline bet instead of pushing.