What is EV in Betting? Understanding Expected Value in Wagers

Expected Value (EV) in betting refers to the calculated average outcome of a wager if it were placed numerous times under identical conditions. Learn how to calculate EV and use it to make profitable betting decisions.

What is the Expected Value (EV) in Betting?

Expected Value (EV) in betting refers to the calculated average outcome of a wager if it were placed numerous times under identical conditions.

Both the probability of a specific outcome and the odds offered by the bookmaker are factored into it.

Bettors use EV as a statistical measure to assess whether a bet is likely to be profitable over the long term.

It helps people strategize and make more informed decisions, rather than focusing on short-term luck.

It is expressed as a numerical value, which can be positive (+EV), negative (-EV), or neutral (0).

A positive EV implies a potentially profitable bet, while a negative EV indicates a bet that is likely to lose money over time.

On the other hand, a zero EV suggests that the bet is expected to break even.

For more information on calculating EV, see our expected value calculator.

How Does Expected Value Work?

As we said, EV is a predictive tool that helps bettors determine the profitability of a wager over the long term.

It combines the probability of an event occurring with the potential payout to create a realistic estimate of a bet's worth.

Hence, the concept of EV involves two critical factors: probability and odds.

Probability refers to the likelihood of a specific outcome occurring, expressed as a percentage or fraction.

Odds represent the bookmaker's offered payout for that outcome.

The bookmaker sets odds not only based on the likelihood of an event but also to ensure their own profit margin.

In other words, their calculations do not always reflect true probabilities.

When analyzing EV, bettors compare their perceived probabilities of an outcome to the implied probabilities derived from the odds.

If their calculated probability suggests the odds undervalue the actual likelihood, the bet may present a positive expected value (+EV).

Conversely, if the odds overvalue the likelihood, it results in a negative expected value (-EV).

Hence, EV ensures bettors do not get misled by short-term outcomes, and instead adopt a long-term strategy to maximize returns and minimize losses.

This way, every wager is backed by solid statistical reasoning, which naturally improves your overall success in betting.

Why is Expected Value Important for Sports Bettors?

Expected value is a structured framework for making important wagering decisions.

Here are a few of the many reasons why it is important for sports bettors:

It Provides a Mathematical Basis for Decision-Making

EV removes the guesswork and emotional bias from betting by grounding decisions in mathematics.

Instead of betting based on gut feelings or fan loyalty, bettors evaluate wagers objectively using probabilities and odds.

This approach transforms betting from a game of chance into a disciplined strategy aimed at consistent gains.

Focuses on Long-Term Success

Short-term outcomes in sports betting can be influenced by variance, where random fluctuations may lead to unexpected wins or losses.

A positive EV bet might lose occasionally, but over a large number of bets, it will generate profits.

Understanding EV encourages bettors to think in terms of aggregate results over time, rather than being swayed by short-term losses or wins.

For more information on variance, see our variance in sports betting guide.

Helps Identify Value in the Market

Odds set by bookmakers are not always perfect reflections of true probabilities.

They often include a margin for profit and can be influenced by public sentiment.

Savvy bettors use EV to identify situations where odds undervalue an outcome's probability, uncovering opportunities to place wagers with positive EV.

This ability to spot value bets is a hallmark of successful sports bettors.

For more information on finding value bets, see our how to find value bets guide.

Mitigates Emotional Betting

Sports betting can be emotionally charged, particularly for fans of a specific team or sport.

EV provides an analytical approach that neutralizes emotional influences, allowing bettors to make rational decisions based on statistical insights.

This reduces impulsive betting and helps bettors avoid common pitfalls such as chasing losses or betting on favorites without proper analysis.

Improves Bankroll Management

By focusing on EV, bettors can allocate their bankroll more efficiently.

Bets with positive EV are more likely to contribute to long-term growth while avoiding negative EV bets minimizes unnecessary losses.

This structured approach helps bettors preserve their bankroll, even during inevitable losing streaks.

For more information on bankroll management, see our bankroll management guide.

Distinguishes Professional Bettors from Recreational Gamblers

While casual gamblers may rely on luck or intuition, professional bettors adopt strategies rooted in EV.

This systematic approach not only increases profitability but also makes betting a sustainable venture.

Professionals understand that consistent application of EV separates them from the majority of bettors who operate without a clear strategy.

Capitalizes on Market Inefficiencies

Bookmakers often misprice odds due to external factors like public betting trends or incomplete data.

Bettors who understand EV can capitalize on these inefficiencies, securing wagers that others overlook.

These value bets provide a significant edge in a competitive market.

How Do I Calculate Odds to Find +EV?

Calculating Expected Value (+EV) involves breaking down the relationship between probabilities, odds, and payouts.

Here's a step-by-step guide to finding positive EV in betting:

Step 1: Understand the Odds

Odds represent the bookmaker's estimation of an event's likelihood.

They are often expressed in one of three formats:

• Decimal Odds (e.g., 2.50): Shows the total return for every unit wagered.
• Fractional Odds (e.g., 3/2): Represents profit relative to the stake.
• Moneyline Odds (e.g., +150): Indicates profit or loss based on a $100 bet.

For more information on understanding odds, see our how to read betting odds guide.

Step 2: Calculate the Implied Probability

Next step is to convert the bookmaker's odds into implied probability, which is the chance of the outcome occurring according to the odds.

Here's how to go about it for each of the three types of odds:

For Decimal Odds:

(1 / decimal odds) × 100 = implied probability

For Fractional Odds:

denominator / (denominator + numerator) × 100 = implied probability

For Moneyline Odds:

For negative moneyline odds: negative moneyline odds / (negative moneyline odds + 100) × 100 = implied probability

For positive moneyline odds: 100 / (positive moneyline odds + 100) × 100 = implied probability

For more information on calculating probabilities, see our implied probability calculator.

Step 3: Determine Your Estimated Probability

Assess the event's actual likelihood using data analysis, trends, and research.

This step involves personal judgment and statistical evaluation, which may differ from the bookmaker's implied probability.

You can use sharp bookmaker odds, statistical models, or your own analysis to estimate true probabilities.

Step 4: Compare Probabilities

If your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability, the bet has potential positive EV.

This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than your assessment suggests, giving you an edge.

Step 5: Calculate EV

Use the formula:

EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)

If the result is positive, the bet has a positive EV, indicating a long-term profit opportunity.

For example, if you bet $100 at odds of 2.00 with a 55% true probability:

EV = (0.55 × $100) - (0.45 × $100) = $55 - $45 = +$10

This positive EV of $10 means you can expect to profit $10 on average for every $100 bet over the long term.

Tips for Positive Expected Value Sports Betting

If you're a bettor, here are some things you need to practice:

Master the Concept of Expected Value (EV)

Before placing any wagers, ensure you fully understand what EV is and how it works.

Positive EV bets statistically lead to profit over time, even if individual bets may lose.

Remember that EV is about long-term profitability, not short-term results.

Research Extensively

Comprehensive research is the backbone of successful EV betting.

Study factors like player statistics, team performance, weather conditions, and head-to-head records.

This analysis helps you estimate probabilities more accurately than bookmakers.

Tools like FairOdds Terminal can help automate this process by scanning thousands of odds and identifying value opportunities.

Use Multiple Sportsbooks

Odds vary across bookmakers, creating opportunities to find better payouts for the same event.

By shopping around, you can secure the best odds and increase your chances of finding positive EV bets.

FairOdds Terminal monitors 200+ bookmakers, making it easy to compare odds and find the best value.

Focus on Lesser-Known Markets

Major leagues and popular events often have well-calibrated odds due to heavy scrutiny.

Explore niche sports or less-followed leagues where bookmakers may misprice outcomes, providing opportunities for +EV.

These markets often have less efficient pricing, creating more value opportunities.

Convert Odds into Implied Probabilities

Always convert the odds offered by bookmakers into implied probabilities.

Compare these with your own probability estimates to identify bets with higher chances of success than the odds suggest.

This comparison is the foundation of value betting.

Bankroll Management

Even with positive EV bets, outcomes can fluctuate.

Use a staking strategy, such as flat betting or proportional betting, to preserve your bankroll during losing streaks and capitalize on profitable bets.

Consider using the Kelly Criterion to optimize bet sizes based on your edge.

For more information on staking strategies, see our Kelly Criterion calculator.

Avoid Emotional Betting

Do not bet on your favorite team or based on public sentiment.

Emotional betting clouds judgment and often leads to poor decision-making.

Stick to rational, EV-focused strategies.

Keep Records of Your Bets

Tracking your betting history helps identify patterns, improve decision-making, and evaluate the effectiveness of your EV-based approach over time.

Monitor your actual results against expected results to ensure your probability estimates are accurate.

This feedback loop helps refine your strategy and improve your edge over time.

Conclusion

Expected Value (EV) is a fundamental concept in profitable sports betting.

By understanding how to calculate EV and identify positive EV bets, you can make more informed decisions and improve your long-term profitability.

Remember that EV betting is about consistency and discipline over time, not about winning every single bet.

Focus on finding value, managing your bankroll, and sticking to your strategy even during losing streaks.

With the right approach and tools, EV betting can transform your betting from a game of chance into a disciplined, profitable strategy.

For more information on value betting, see our complete value betting guide.

Ready to start finding positive EV bets? Use FairOdds Terminal to automatically identify value opportunities across 200+ bookmakers and build consistent profits through strategic betting.

What is EV in Betting FAQ