Why Value Betting is More Profitable Than Arbitrage Betting
A comprehensive comparison of two betting strategies and why value betting wins long-term.
Value betting involves taking the positive expected value (EV) side of a bet without hedging your risk. Arbitrage betting (also known as arbing) means betting both sides of a match to guarantee profit regardless of the outcome.
While arbitrage betting offers guaranteed returns, value betting is the superior long-term strategy for serious bettors. Here's why.
Understanding the Difference
For those unfamiliar with arbitrage betting, it's when you bet two sides of a sports match for guaranteed profit. Value betting, on the other hand, means taking only the value side of that equation—not hedging off any risk and accepting that there's no guaranteed profit.
Let's look at a concrete example to illustrate the difference:
Example: Tennis Match (Djokovic vs Nadal)
Assume both players have exactly a 50% chance of winning:
- Bookmaker A: Offers 1.9 odds for both players
- Bookmaker B: Offers 2.2 for Djokovic and 1.7 for Nadal
Arbitrage Strategy:
- Bet $46.34 on Djokovic at 2.2 (the positive EV bet)
- Bet $53.66 on Nadal at 1.9 (negative EV to reduce risk)
- Total stake: $100
- Guaranteed profit: $1.95
Value Betting Strategy:
- Bet $100 on Djokovic at 2.2
- 50% chance of winning $120
- 50% chance of losing $100
- Expected value: $10 (10% long-term profit)
As you can see, there's a significant difference: $1.95 of guaranteed profit versus $10 of expected value. While the arbitrage profit is certain, value betting offers over 5x the expected return.
Five Reasons Why Value Betting Wins
1. Capital Requirements and Turnover
Arbitrage betting requires large bets or high turnover to be sustainable. In the example above, $100 gets you back only $1.95—hardly sustainable unless you're betting for fun on weekends.
To make meaningful profits with arbitrage, you need to scale up significantly, which requires substantial capital. Once you start investing large amounts, other issues emerge (like account restrictions, which we'll cover later).
Value betting doesn't require as much capital. Comparing $10 expected value to $1.95 guaranteed profit, you'd need to turn over approximately 5x the amount in arbitrage betting just to approach that expected value figure.
While the $10 isn't guaranteed profit, over a large sample of thousands of bets, you'll get very close to that $10 average return.
2. Profit Margins
If you're looking to scale up either operation, it's going to be much harder to make decent profits with arbitrage betting unless you're committing massive amounts of capital.
Value betting involves more risk, but long-term you should be able to make significantly more money than with arbitrage betting—assuming you have an edge.
Most arbitrage opportunities offer 1-3% guaranteed profit, while value bets can provide 5-10% expected value or more. The difference compounds dramatically over time.
3. Bookmaker Restrictions
Both strategies will eventually get you restricted, but arbitrage betting will get you restricted much faster.
When placing arbitrage bets, you're taking significant value on one side—often massive value. These bets flag up to bookmakers immediately. After placing even one or multiple arbitrage bets where you're taking huge value, your accounts are likely to get restricted quickly.
In general, to create an arbitrage opportunity, you need massive value on one side. When you're taking those massive value bets, it alerts bookmakers and your accounts get restricted much faster.
With value betting, you're probably not taking huge value bets like you would with arbitrage. Instead, you're taking smaller edges over time, making it harder for bookmakers to spot you placing smaller positive EV bets consistently.
4. Bet Voiding Risks
Bookmakers can void bets, especially in cases where there are arbitrage opportunities. When prices are so far out from the market, bookmakers can void the bet under "palpable error" and claim it was a mistake—perhaps a technological issue or a trader accidentally pressing the wrong button.
This is a major risk with arbitrage betting. If a bookmaker voids one of your bets, most likely they'll void the profitable side (the positive EV side), leaving you with only the negative EV side of the arbitrage.
You're now stuck with a really bad bet—essentially a negative expected value position with no hedge. This risk makes arbitrage betting particularly dangerous when odds are far from market prices.
5. Time Efficiency
Arbitrage betting is simply more time-consuming. Placing two bets on one event takes longer than placing one bet, especially when you're using arbitrage calculators to work out exactly what stake you need to put down.
By the time you do all the calculations and place both sides of the arbitrage, you've spent significantly more time than if you were just doing straight value betting.
Time is money, and the efficiency gains from value betting allow you to place more bets and capitalize on more opportunities.
When Arbitrage Betting Makes Sense
Arbitrage betting isn't without merit. If you're just getting started in betting and have a very small bankroll, arbitrage betting can be a good way to get started and build your bankroll with guaranteed profits.
However, as a long-term strategy, arbitrage betting is simply not going to be better than value betting if you have an edge.
Summary Comparison
| Factor | Arbitrage Betting | Value Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Profit Type | Guaranteed (1-3%) | Expected Value (5-10%+) |
| Capital Required | High (5x+ more) | Lower |
| Account Restrictions | Fast (often after 1-5 bets) | Slower (smaller edges harder to detect) |
| Bet Voiding Risk | High (palpable error claims) | Low |
| Time Efficiency | Lower (2 bets + calculations) | Higher (1 bet) |
| Scalability | Difficult (requires massive capital) | Easier (better margins) |
Conclusion
Value betting is the superior long-term strategy for serious bettors. While arbitrage betting offers guaranteed profits, the margins are too small, capital requirements too high, and the risks (restrictions, voiding) too significant.
Value betting requires discipline and an edge, but rewards you with higher expected returns, better scalability, and longer account longevity. If you're serious about making money from sports betting, focus on finding positive EV opportunities rather than chasing guaranteed but minimal arbitrage profits.
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Value Betting vs Arbitrage Betting FAQ
What is the difference between value betting and arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage betting involves betting both sides of a match for guaranteed profit, while value betting means taking only the positive EV side without hedging. Value betting has higher expected value but no guaranteed profit.
Why is value betting more profitable than arbitrage betting?
Value betting offers higher expected value (often 5-10% vs 1-2% for arbs), requires less capital, gets you restricted slower, avoids bet voiding risks, and is more time-efficient.
Do arbitrage bettors get restricted faster?
Yes. Arbitrage betting requires taking massive value on one side, which flags bookmakers quickly. Value betting uses smaller edges over time, making detection harder.
Can bookmakers void arbitrage bets?
Yes. When odds are far from market prices, bookmakers can void bets under palpable error claims, leaving you with only the negative EV side of the arb.
Is arbitrage betting better for beginners?
Arbitrage can help beginners build a bankroll with guaranteed profits, but as a long-term strategy, value betting is superior if you have an edge.
How much capital do I need for arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage betting requires approximately 5x more capital than value betting to achieve similar profit levels, due to the smaller profit margins (1-3% vs 5-10%+).
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the long-term average return on a bet. A positive EV bet means you'll profit over time, even if individual bets lose.