The Hunt for Value in Sports Betting

Value betting occurs when you identify betting opportunities that are more likely to happen than the betting odds suggest. Learn how to master finding value bets and build long-term profitability.

Value betting is when you identify a betting opportunity that is more likely to happen than the betting odds suggest.

For example, a team may be priced at odds of 4.00 to win a match. If you think the true odds are closer to 3.00, then this represents a value bet.

A value bet won't win every time—it may not even provide a profit over a given week or month—but if you can consistently identify value and have it in your favor, your long-term profits will prove your ability to find value when betting on sports.

What is Value Betting

Value betting is the practice of finding opportunities where bookmakers offer odds that are better than the true probability of an outcome occurring.

Bookmakers use odds to represent the probability of an outcome happening within an event. However, bookmakers are in the business of making money, so they give bettors a disadvantage by offering reduced rates (actual odds rather than true odds) to ensure they have an edge—or overround—which gives them the best chance of taking your money.

When bookmakers set unfair prices, employ hundreds of intelligent mathematicians, and have very deep pockets, we could be forgiven for thinking that we've got no hope of making profit in the long-term.

All is not lost though. An opportunity does exist if we are able to more accurately predict the outcome of an event compared to the bookmakers, particularly as the outcome of most sporting events do not have a set probability like casino games such as roulette.

We don't need to be able to out-predict the bookmakers on everything, but if we can find a niche and spot where we think the bookmakers have mispriced based on their probabilities compared to ours, then there may be a chance of making money over the long-term.

This is the crux of value betting—looking for opportunities where you feel that the bookmakers are offering higher odds than you'd expect in any market and on any sport.

If you've ever looked at odds and thought "those odds look too high" or "that price seems generous," then this is value betting in its simplest form. Essentially, you are identifying where you think the odds are too high based on your own perception.

How to Identify Value Bets

There are many ways of trying to identify value in sports betting—this can range from the simplest of methods, which is based on gut feel and knowledge of a sport, through to complex mathematical models using power ratings, Poisson distribution, Elo ratings, and other statistical methods.

Understanding how to read betting odds and calculate implied probability is essential for identifying value. You need to compare the bookmaker's implied probability to your own assessment of the true probability.

If you are to take value betting seriously, you need to ensure that you are very structured and disciplined in your approach and have exceptional knowledge of the markets, which unfortunately does require time and effort to get it right.

Value betting can be time-consuming and can take the fun out of betting for some people. However, searching for value can be a very sensible approach to betting if you are serious about making long-term profit and can identify that much searched for edge over bookmakers.

Tools like FairOdds Terminal can help automate the process of finding value bets by comparing odds across 200+ bookmakers and identifying opportunities where prices are better than expected.

Value Betting Myths and Misconceptions

There are a few myths and misconceptions when it comes to value betting, which often adds to the confusion about whether value betting is beneficial or not.

Myth 1: Low Odds Don't Offer Value

Some people claim that you need high odds to get value, however this is not true. Value is value, regardless of how low the odds.

If bookmakers offer odds of 1.15 but you think that the odds should be 1.10 based on your projected probability, then this is still value as you are getting a better price than you should be entitled to.

Granted, you aren't going to see your betting bank increase rapidly after each bet, but your focus should be on long-term profit, not just the return from each bet.

Myth 2: The Bigger the Odds, the Better Value

Similarly, you may find that some people say that you get more value with bigger odds. Again, this is not true as value should be measured as the difference between your expected odds and those of the bookmakers.

Getting odds of 1.90 (53% probability) on a bet which you think has a 70% chance of winning (odds should be 1.43) is better value than placing a bet on odds of 5.00 (20% probability) when the chance of it happening is 21% (odds of 4.77).

Yes, the return on the higher odds is greater, but doesn't necessarily represent the better value.

Myth 3: Accumulators Don't Offer Value

Bets with multiple selections are often seen as risky. With every bet you add to an accumulator, your chance of actually winning the bet decreases.

Even though you might be on an accumulator with 25.00 odds and think it sounds very tempting, the actual probability of winning the bet will usually be considerably less than the odds on offer.

However, this isn't to say that accumulators don't offer value—they do, but only if each leg of your accumulator is a value bet.

If every selection in your accumulator represents value individually, then the combined bet can also represent value, even though the overall probability of winning is lower.

Bookmaker Errors and Palpable Mistakes

Even when you find value, sometimes bookmakers can use their carefully worded terms and conditions to void bets if they decide that they have made a palpable or obvious error.

This is a somewhat unknown rule which is in place as a safeguard to protect bookmakers if they make a mistake with their odds—for example, if a trader accidentally gives a player odds of 25.00 rather than 2.50 to win a championship.

If you get odds of 25.00 when every other bookmaker is offering 2.50, then yes you're getting value, but it is likely due to a major error.

Chances are that your bet will be voided, in which case you'll either receive your stake back, receive winnings at the 'correct' odds, or be given a good-will gesture rather than drastically improve your ROI through one bet.

This does raise questions about what constitutes a palpable error and whether it gives bookmakers too much flexibility, but understanding this concept is important when hunting for value.

It's also important to differentiate palpable errors from any kind of sportsbook scam. Genuine errors are rare, and most value opportunities come from legitimate pricing differences rather than mistakes.

Changing Your Betting Mentality

Hunting for value may also mean a slight change in your betting mentality. If you normally just bet with one bookmaker "because that's where I have money deposited" or "because they had decent sign-up bonuses," then you're missing opportunities.

By comparing odds across multiple bookmakers, you can quickly and easily see all the odds on offer for a particular bet and therefore find the highest price.

You may find that championship odds range from 2.40 to 2.60 with different bookmakers, in which case it makes sense to go with the higher odds as long as it represents value in your eyes.

If you can get just that little bit more on the price, then this will dramatically help you in the long run as those additional 0.1's add up—that is if your bets win though!

This is why line shopping is so important. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your long-term profitability.

Tools like FairOdds Terminal automatically compare odds across 200+ bookmakers in real-time, making it easy to find the best available price for your value bets without manually checking each bookmaker.

Value Betting Conclusion

Value betting can be time-consuming and can take the fun out of betting for some people. If you like your six-fold football accumulators or going to the dogs for a night out, then chances are that value betting isn't for you.

However, searching for value can be a very sensible approach to betting if you are serious about making long-term profit and can identify that much searched for edge over bookmakers.

The key is being structured, disciplined, and having exceptional knowledge of the markets you're betting on. This requires time and effort, but the long-term rewards can be significant.

Remember: value betting is about finding opportunities where bookmakers offer better odds than expected, not about predicting every outcome correctly. Focus on the process, maintain discipline, and let the math work in your favor over time.

Ready to find value bets automatically? Use FairOdds Terminal to compare odds across 200+ bookmakers and identify value opportunities in real-time.

Value Betting FAQ