NFL Futures Betting: How to Beat the Markets

NFL futures are where sportsbooks print money from hopeless lottery ticket plays. But approached correctly, futures can be one of the most beatable markets. Learn the three ways to attack them.

NFL futures are where sportsbooks print money. That's because most bettors make hopeless plays on their favorite team and treat it like a lottery ticket.

And lottery tickets are rarely a good decision.

But if you approach them the right way, futures bets can also be one of the most beatable markets you'll see all season.

Today I'm going to give you three ways to attack them: one that's too easy, one that's too hard, and one that's just right.

Why Most NFL Futures Bets Lose

There's no bigger sport in the US than the NFL. There's also no sport that offers a wider variety of bets to make than NFL football.

It's an all-you-can-eat buffet of props, teasers, halftimes, and live bets.

Before the season though, futures get all the attention. And why not? Every bettor wants to call their shot.

Like anyone who had the '99 Rams winning it all at 150-to-1. If you can say you saw a former Arena League quarterback like Kurt Warner leading his team to the promised land, you can lord it over your friends for years.

Why NFL Futures Can Be Beatable

Still, there are exploitable inefficiencies here.

That's because a futures wager is really just an offshoot of combining the results of other wagers.

To project who's going to win a division, you have to project out how each team is going to perform in their games that season.

You see, futures are just the answer to a parlay of a series of logic puzzles. Approach it like that, and you're ahead of the game already.

Not All Futures Are Created Equal

The markets with the most possible outcomes, like who will win the Super Bowl, are where the sportsbooks bake in the most vig.

They're as uncertain as you are. And the book's first line of defense against uncertainty is to charge you more to make the bet.

These are the bets that prey on less sophisticated bettors making emotional plays with a combination of hopeful fandom and longshot dollar signs in their eyes.

The Sweet Spot: Two-Sided Markets

But when you narrow it down to just a couple of outcomes, like:

• Team season win total (over/under)
• Yes/no playoff bets
• Division winner (fewer teams)

The pricing gets softer and inefficiencies creep in.

This is where the majority of profitable futures bets are made.

Sure, being able to predict who will win the Super Bowl is a lot sexier than predicting that a mediocre team is going to win a mediocre number of games. But guess what? The money you win on boring bets is just as green.

Three Ways to Attack NFL Futures

Method 1: Line Shopping (Too Easy)

You can apply line shopping to futures bets. By finding the best line on all possible outcomes, you lower that massive house edge.

In the case of those two-sided markets, you may even find some arbitrage opportunities.

For some bettors, once they hear arb, that's as far as they need to go.

The problem: You're tying up money in that arbitrage for at least 4 months. That's a lot of opportunity cost for a few percentage points of expected value.

But here's the real problem with applying top-down approach to futures markets: There's no real market maker.

Even the sharp sportsbooks don't spend a lot of effort in shaping these lines, and they're often not a big draw to sharp bettors. As a result, these lines aren't always razor sharp.

A little top-down theory is fine here, but it's just not enough.

Method 2: Build Power Ratings & Simulate (Too Hard)

Beating these futures markets needs more work. The way most sportsbooks try to solve it is to:

1. Create power ratings
2. Simulate out the season
3. Adjust power ratings for each simulated week's results

Taking this approach, you're solving the individual logic puzzles that make up the futures market.

It sounds like a lot of work. But the first part, creating power ratings, isn't as hard as you might think.

Power ratings are so central to predictive analytics that sportsbooks use them to help set lines. Done well, they can measure how much one team would be favored over another.

The problem: If you want to actually project a whole season, you need to simulate out the games and then update ratings week to week as teams change.

That's a ton of heavy lifting and a lot of work to do. It also requires you to know ball better than the market.

Trying to out-information the collective wisdom of a market like the NFL is playing with fire. That's too much.

Method 3: Use Sharp Sources + Tools (Just Right)

That leads us to the Goldilocks zone:

• You let somebody else know ball
• You let someone else play mad scientist
• You let them be your source of truth

Instead of spending weeks building your power ratings from scratch, you can start with the work of analysts who live and breathe football.

Or you can even lean on the books themselves using look-ahead lines.

Better yet, you can blend multiple sharp sources into one stronger set of ratings.

From there, you still need tools to simulate it all out for you. Professional tools run thousands of season simulations, adjusting team ratings up or down as games are won or lost.

The Mid-Season Sweet Spot

But what about the fact that sportsbooks hold the money for months?

Well, that's the beauty of betting futures. Most people get to week one and stop betting them.

But these markets are more vulnerable around 6 to 8 weeks into the season:

• Power ratings are sharper
• Significant injury information is available
• Books can get swayed by public opinion
• Books' own liabilities on teams create line movement

Finding Value in NFL Futures

To find value in NFL futures:

1. Focus on two-sided markets (win totals, playoff props)
2. Use power ratings or sharp sources as your baseline
3. Compare to bookmaker futures odds
4. Look for discrepancies where your projection differs from market
5. Consider mid-season entry points (weeks 6-8)
6. Calculate expected value before betting

Track your NFL futures bets and compare to American Football betting opportunities on FairOdds Terminal.

Frequently Asked Questions