How Weather Impacts Total Betting for MLB

Complete guide to MLB weather betting. Learn how temperature affects home runs, why wind blowing in strongly favors the under, and how to line shop weather games for maximum profit.

Baseball is one of two major sports (football being the other) that is played outside where the players need to deal with the elements.

While baseball might not quite play through a monsoon or blizzard like the NFL does, they still need to deal with wind and temperature.

Read below to learn everything involved with how the weather impacts MLB games, and specifically the total.

Temperature Impact on MLB Totals

Whenever I think of baseball, I think of hot, muggy summer days. So, let's dive into how hot weather impacts the total. For this purpose we will define hot as anything 90+ degrees.

In general, heat leads to the ball going farther in the air, which obviously means more runs. The hotter the temperature is, the more home runs are hit, to put it simply.

The Line Shopping Strategy

Instead, the best strategy to apply here is to:

1. Note each game where the temperature is 90+ degrees
2. Line shop across bookmakers
3. See if there is a certain book that hasn't updated their odds yet

The secret of sports betting is that not all sportsbooks have the same exact odds and they all update their odds at a different rate.

It is possible that DraftKings has updated the total to reflect the temperature, while FanDuel has not. This is why it's important that you are signed up for every bookmaker available.

The Impact of Wind and Wind Direction

With temperature out of the way, wind is where the most profitable betting trends have been identified.

The most important factor when it comes to wind is which direction is the wind actually blowing.

Obviously wind blowing out of the park is entirely different than wind blowing in.

Wind Blowing IN: Take the Under

The biggest trend when it comes to weather is to take the under when the wind is blowing in.

Wind blowing in prevents the ball from carrying as far, reducing home runs and overall scoring.

Wind Blowing OUT: Take the Over

The opposite of this would be wind blowing out, of course.

While not as profitable as taking the under with the wind blowing in, it is still in general a profitable betting trend to take the over when the wind is blowing out.

Wind blowing out helps the ball carry, increasing home runs and run production.

Stadium-Specific Exceptions

An important factor in all of this is to account for the stadium in which the games are being played.

Going back to that wind blowing out trend, there are two stadiums in which that trend doesn't apply and your ROI would actually double if you took both of them out.

The Line Shopping Imperative

Similar to temperature trends, the most important thing you can do is to line shop and find examples where sportsbooks are slow to update their lines.

Sportsbooks are aware of all the same trends we are, but it doesn't mean that they are quick enough to update the over/under to reflect these different types of situations.

A profitable sports bettor would:

1. Do the research to find games where any of these trends might occur
2. Line shop to find the best odds before placing any bets
3. Compare totals across all available bookmakers
4. Bet at the bookmaker with the best line (slowest to adjust)

Use FairOdds Terminal to compare MLB totals across 200+ bookmakers and identify which books haven't adjusted for weather conditions yet.

Practical MLB Weather Betting Strategy

Here's your complete workflow for MLB weather betting:

1. Check weather reports for all MLB games that day
2. Identify wind direction (blowing in/out) and temperature (90+)
3. Note potential plays:
   • Wind blowing in = Under bet
   • Wind blowing out = Over bet (except Oakland/Angels)
   • 90+ degrees = Potential over (if lines not adjusted)
4. Line shop across bookmakers to find who hasn't adjusted
5. Place bets at bookmakers with favorable lines
6. Track results to verify strategies work

Frequently Asked Questions