The Best Strategies for Making Money from Sports Betting

The Best Strategies for Making Money from Sports Betting

There are many ways to make money from sports betting. Unfortunately, none of them are passive.

It's not like passive index investing, where you can expect an annual return of around 8%. It's more like day trading in sports, aiming for a monthly return of 25%+. It sounds crazy to non-bettors, I know.

But think about it.

If you consistently identify a 3% advantage in basketball, for example, and there are fixtures every day, the effect of compounding can be significant.

The million-dollar question is: what's stopping everyone from retiring from sports betting?

Firstly, the majority of people are unable to comprehend variance or the maths behind it. More importantly, it's not a case of betting whatever you like. It is the bookmaker (sportsbook) who determines your limits, not you. That's just how the game goes, and it's all perfectly reasonable. If a lot of people put £500 on a mispriced NHL market, a book could get hammered.

As a successful gambler, you're always working hard. There is no single magic strategy, but it can be very lucrative. This article runs through several approaches that actually work in practice.

Why we built Fairoddsterminal
Our goal is to help bettors win by offering a high-frequency pre-match tool (and ultimately live) at a genuinely affordable price, thereby putting top-tier odds tech in everyone's hands.

Building Your Own Model

You could try to beat Pinnacle by building a model. That sounds tough. They’re a savvy company that invests millions in pricing, and their margin (or 'juice'/overround) is 2–5% or more, so you're already at a disadvantage.

Also, why do you think you know better than the market? Tens of millions are wagered weekly on the NHL alone. Prices are set by supply and demand. If you ignore market efficiency, you’re claiming to have an advantage over the opinions of millions of other people, that’s a bold stance.

How to Build a Sports Betting Model

Sports betting is a numbers game. Ideally, you would place 50+ bets per day, each with a small edge. I’d prefer to place 50 bets with an average edge of 3% than rely on a model that produces four fancy selections.

Perhaps you could develop a model that outperforms the bookmakers if you incorporate real-time odds directly into the model. From a markets/maths logic perspective, static historical models alone are rarely sufficient.

If you love modelling, try niche sports such as golf or lower-tier basketball. It could be enjoyable and occasionally profitable, but it's a lot of work for a limited payoff. That’s my view, but smart people I work with disagree and many customers enjoy model-driven betting. This article simply reflects my opinion.

Positive EV Betting (+EV)

This is my main approach and, in my view, the most profitable one. As a user, it's simple: place the specific price that shows an edge, rather than accepting "any price, anywhere".

For example, as shown in the screenshot below, IK Sirius at 3.1 on Unibet is +EV at that price. This does not mean “bet on IK Sirius at any odds”. Price is everything.

Most bets are not +EV. Out of the millions of prices updating on the FairOdds Terminal, there are typically only around 80 +EV bets live at any given moment.

Middle Betting

The Fairoddsterminal includes a Middle Finder. A middle appears when two books have slightly different totals/spreads, leaving a gap that can be exploited.

Example: Over 48.5 at Book A vs Under 49 at Book B.

Imagine staking £100 on the Over at Book A and £101.99 on the Under at Book B (stakes chosen to balance outcomes given the odds on screen). The possibilities:

1. Total ≤ 48
   You lose £100 on the Over, win on the Under (returns ~£205 — profit ~£103.01).
   Net profit ≈ £3.01.
2. The “middle” lands (both legs win when the result falls strictly between the two numbers; e.g., 49.0 if your pair is Over 48.5 and Under 49.5).
   Both bets cash (example returns ~£205 each — profits ~£105 and ~£103.01).
   Net profit ≈ £208.01.
3. Total ≥ 50
   You win the Over (profit ~£105) and lose ~£101.99 on the Under.
   Net profit ≈ £3.01.

Arbitrage Betting (Arbs)

Arbitrage involves making risk-free profits from price differences between bookmakers. Sometimes, you can bet on Over with one bookmaker and Under with another to guarantee a profit. However, you must be quick and familiar with the different bookmakers’ sites, as odds can change and limits apply.

Out of the millions of updates per second on the FairOdds Terminal, only a tiny fraction form valid arbs; we identify them for you and make the data actionable.

Please note that, by definition, arbing is typically less lucrative than +EV betting, but it's cleaner and capped by limits/availability.

Trends & Historical Stats

This is largely irrelevant. Real-time markets already take trends and past performance into account. It's like using the Bitcoin price from ten years ago to predict its current value — the live market tells you what the current consensus is.

Watching Sports

I'm not a big believer. Knowing the sport doesn't automatically give you an advantage. People who think they can out-watch and outsmart modern trading teams tend to line the pockets of those who do.

If you still believe that the 'eye test' is the most important factor, ask yourself why you are smarter than the market and the pricing teams who invest millions in technology and quantitative research. Respect the market.

Could specialist knowledge help in niche sports? Maybe. Chinese basketball or table tennis might present some opportunities, but that's the exception rather than the rule.

Whatever strategy you choose, treat betting like a numbers game: small edges, high volume, strict bankroll rules, and relentless discipline. Fairoddsterminal exists to help you find those edges at scale affordably.